The Captain's Blog

American League East

The Yankees and Red Sox are on equal footing in the East, so just about anything could tip the balance. Boston’s bullpen looks to be its biggest weakness, and a few extra blown saves could make the difference in the division race. The rotation is the Yankees’ Achilles heel, and if Luis Severino isn’t healthy, Boston should take the top spot. All things considered, the Bronx Bombers have a little more depth, so if health treats each team equally, the Yankees should celebrate their first division title in seven seasons. The Rays will spend most of the season looking up at the Yankees and Red Sox, but with a good young rotation and solid lineup, Tampa should have enough to claim a wild card spot. All three teams’ position in the league should be bolstered by beating up on the Blue Jays and Orioles. Even if the Blue Jays surprise with an early season improvement, chances are the organization will look to deal veterans for prospects at some point, making them a second half laggard. The only suspense regarding the Orioles is whether they will become the second team in MLB history to have consecutive 110 loss seasons (1962-63 Mets).

Can anything to be gleaned from team records during the exhibition season? Or, does Opening Day truly wipe the page clean? Conventional wisdom scoffs at those who pay too much attention to spring training games, but maybe a team’s pre-season performance shouldn’t be completely ignored?

Distribution of Spring Training and Regular Season Winning Percentage Divergence, Since 1984

Note: Tie games excluded from winning percentage calculations.
Source: baseball-reference.com, mlb.com and springtrainingmagazine.com

The correlation between exhibition and regular season winning percentages has historically been low. Since 1984, the correlation coefficient is only 0.16, and from 1998 and 2010, the relationship is a similarly weak 0.20. In terms of the difference between winning percentages, over the longer span, just over 30% of teams had regular season records within 10% of their spring training results. So, in aggregate, the convention wisdom seems to be correct. However, an anecdotal look at the best and worst records suggests a link that may be more than just coincidental.

Top-10 and Bottom-10 Spring Training Records Since 1984

Note: Excludes the 1990 and 1995 exhibition seasons, which were shortened by work stoppages. Tie games excluded from winning percentage calculations.
Source: baseball-reference.com, mlb.com and springtrainingmagazine.com

The Yankees’ spending freeze was expected to thaw this winter. With two of baseball’s brightest young stars on the market and reportedly eager to shine in the Bronx, almost everyone assumed at least one would be wearing pinstripes. Conventional wisdom was wrong. In fact, the Yankees didn’t even make a formal offer to Bryce Harper and Manny Machado. Free agency, it seems, has become too rich for the team with the highest revenue in the game.

Although some fans will undoubtedly feel betrayed by the Yankees’ refusal to spend at levels commensurate with the league average, the team’s reluctance to invest in elite free agents has become a well telegraphed aversion. Throughout the winter, Hal Steinbrenner bemoaned the team’s operating costs and warned about the need to save up for the future commitments that will be needed to retain the team’s young core. No one should take Steinbrenner’s first lament seriously because the high cost of operating in New York is greatly mitigated by the tax-preferred financing and anti-trust protection that have helped the team’s enterprise value balloon. But, what about the appeal to future cash flow? Is the Yankees’ reluctance to spend on free agents justified by the looming cost of retaining its own star players?

To effectively evaluate this claim, we first need to identify the players the Yankees hope to extend. Since Steinbrenner’s comments were made, the team inked Luis Severino and Aaron Hicks to long-term, team-friendly deals, so that leaves Aaron Judge, Gary Sanchez, Miguel Andujar and Gleyber Torres as young stars who have the potential to command exorbitant salaries as their careers progress. How exorbitant? The chart below attempts to put a price tag on the team’s new core four.

Projecting the Future Cost of the New Core Four

Note: Current service time records are Bryant at $10.85mn, Betts at $20mn and Donaldson at $23mn. Blue shading represents arbitration eligible years. Torres has four years of eligibility, but a free agent contract after year three is assumed.

Five years after parting, the Yankees and Robinson Cano could be headed for a reunion. The Mariners, who have begun an aggressive tear down, are reportedly eager to shed the $120 million remaining on Cano’s contract, and the Bronx Bombers are one of the teams that has expressed an interest. But, is Cano still a good fit in pinstripes, and, if so, how would such a deal work?

Would Cano have a role on the current Yankee team? Before crunching the numbers, let’s consider that question first. Now 36, Cano’s best defensive days are in the past, and his usefulness as a second baseman is waning, but he can still hit. Looking further out, it’s not hard to imagine Cano serving as a DH in the mold of David Ortiz, who, incidentally, had some of his best seasons after the age Cano is now. For this year, however, Cano’s increased versatility could be of particular value.  With Didi Gregorius expected to miss at least the first half, and the Yankees’ infield now in flux, Cano could be a stop gap at second (even if the team also acquires Manny Machado). In addition, Cano, who played 14 games at first base in 2018, could serve in that role as the lefty platoon complement to Luke Voit, and also DH when Giancarlo Stanton plays the field.

Robinson Cano vs. David Ortiz: wRC+ by Age

Source: fangraphs.com

Getting his bat in the lineup could take some creativity, but the value of doing so is unquestionable. Not only did Cano’s wRC+ of 136 in half a season surpass his career mark, but it ranked 21st in all of baseball among hitters who had at least 300 plate appearances. What’s more, Cano being a lefty and having a relatively higher rate of contact would add needed diversification to the Yankees’ lineup.

The answer is clear. Cano fits. But, does his contract? Continue Reading »