The Captain's Blog

Hal Steinbrenner is right. The Yankees are a championship-caliber team. They might even be the best team in baseball. The ceiling is certainly high on a very talented team, and even reasonable expectations put the Bronx Bombers among the game’s elite. However, the down side risk is not inconsiderable. Although the Yankees may be the odds on favorite to win the World Series, they aren’t quite guaranteed to make the playoffs. Would a more aggressive off season have created greater assurance? Undoubtedly, but with a disappointing winter in the past, Yankee fans can still look forward to an exciting summer.

If everything falls into the place, the Yankees could be a juggernaut that wins well over 100 games. This scenario is predicated on a consistent rotation capable of brilliance backed up by a deep, dominant bullpen and an explosive offensive brimming with power. Health is the biggest concern. Early spring injuries to key contributors like Aaron Hicks, Luis Severino and Dellin Betances raise alarm bells, but if the initial prognoses are correct, the long-term impact should be muted. Otherwise, there aren’t many candidates for performance regression. On the contrary, the Yankees can reasonably expect either the same or more production at every position but short stop.

Everything doesn’t have to go right, however. The Yankees have enough talent to overcome a few injuries or disappointments, especially if the team is willing to make a key trade or two at the deadline. But, they are not invulnerable. If the early injuries persist, or expected improvements do not come to fruition, the Yankees could end up on the fringe of the wild card race. Unlike last year, there aren’t many major league ready reinforcements waiting in the minors, so if things go south, Brian Cashman will have to look outside the organization for help, and if the cost is too high, the Bronx Bombers could be left stranded.

Following are 12 key questions outlined and answered in the context of reasonable best, base, and worst case scenarios. Also, scroll below to see how well the Captain’s Blog has predicted the Yankees’ annual win total in the past and click here to see a forecast for the rest of the league.

Best Case Scenario: 105 wins

The Yankees’ efforts to improve the rotation and fortify an already strong bullpen pay off as James Paxton and J.A. Happ join Masahiro Tanaka as stable anchors that allow Luis Severino and CC Sabathia to get healthy and then thrive. The decision to stick with Miguel Andujar at third base also proves enlightened as he and Gleyber Torres build on their rookie season, creating a formidable lineup that includes a resurgent Gary Sanchez complementing the consistent slugging of Giancarlo Stanton and Aaron Judge in the middle of the order. Also, despite several key spring injuries, the Yankees rebound to have good relative health throughout the season, and when needs arise, the organization proves willing to pull the trigger on a big trade.

1. Severino returns from the injured list in early May, and after easing into action, comes close to approximating the Cy Young form he showed in the first half of the 2018 season.
2. Tanaka, Happ and Paxton are all able to throw around 180 innings apiece and collectively perform well above league average, with at least one attaining an All Star level.
3. Sabathia misses a few starts throughout the year, but is able to provide 150 innings that are at least league average.
4. Length from the starters and overall depth keeps the bullpen well rested and dominant throughout the year. Manager Aaron Boone gradually develops a sound plan to deploy his many weapons, which include a healthy Dellin Betances, and this depth allows the team to overcome inevitable hiccups by individual relievers. As a result, the Yankees dominate games in which they lead after five innings, and post historic numbers in those situations.
5. Judge is healthy for the entire year and continues to improve as a hitter, while a more comfortable Stanton builds meaningfully on his 2018 campaign.
6. Sanchez stays healthy, makes further improvement on defense, and rebounds to have a very productive season on offense.
7. Torres and Andujar avoid the sophomore slump and at least approximate their offensive levels from the season before. Andujar also makes strides on defense at third, while Torres adapts well when asked to play short stop.
8. With Luke Voit and Greg Bird, the Yankees have a solid first base/alternative DH platoon that provides power toward the bottom of the lineup.
9. Troy Tulowitzki is able to stay healthy and play above average defense at SS, while providing enough offense to solidify his position as an every player until Didi Gregorius gets back.  When Gregorius does return, he is productive, and Boone is able to manage his playing time without disrupting the team.
10. Aaron Hicks’ back is fully healed, allowing the center fielder to continue his ascent as one of the game’s best offensive and defensive center fielders.
11. When needed, the Yankees’ deeper bench, which includes major league veterans Brett Gardner and DJ LeMahieu, proves versatile and productive.  
12. The Yankees’ front office proves willing to make a big move at the deadline, with their sights set on a dominant starter (perhaps Madison Bumgarner).

Base Case Scenario: 97 wins

The injury to Luis Severino lingers and the rotation overall is solid, but not spectacular. However, a deep and dominant bullpen helps disguise that blemish, while a powerful offense, led by Judge and Stanton, provides more than enough offensive support. The Yankees’ overall depth proves to be an asset, but there are some early growing pains as players get used to moving around the diamond and adjusting to less consistent playing time. If a need arises, the organization will try to make a deal, but remain reticent to take on money when doing so, limiting its options.

1. Severino doesn’t return as early as expected, and then only slowly regains his feel. As a result, it isn’t until after the All Star break that the Yankees’ young right hander approaches dominance, but even then, it’s at a level below his peak from the prior season. One bright side is a stronger Severino down the stretch and into October.
2. At least two of Tanaka, Happ and Paxton throw around 180 innings apiece, and the trio collectively performs well above league average. However, neither reaches the level of an All Star game selection or Cy Young award consideration.
3. Sabathia misses about 10 starts during the year, but is able to provide 120 innings that are around league average. His replacements in the rotation prove inconsistent, but adequate enough to allow the Yankees’ other strengths, as well as roster creativity, to stem the tide.
4. The Yankees bullpen is dominant, but Boone struggles a little to define roles. Also, with Sabathia and Severino missing time, and their replacements lacking consistency, the bullpen goes through periods of being overtaxed. Intermittent injuries to various relievers also thins some of the depth, but overall, the wealth of arms proves to be a big strength for the team.
5. Judge is healthy for the entire year and approximates his production over the last two seasons, while a more comfortable Stanton improves modestly on his 2018 campaign.
6. A healthy Sanchez is a better defender and improved hitter, but not to the MVP levels the Yankees had hoped for entering the 2018 season. He remains a top catcher, but expectations are lowered.
7. Torres and Andujar avoid a sophomore slump at the plate, but their defensive lags. Andujar’s bad habits at third return, while Torres struggles with being moved between 2B and SS, preventing him from establishing consistency with his glove.
8. One of Voit and Bird emerge as an above average offensive player at first base, but the other struggles in a platoon role, leading to a demotion.
9. Tulowitzki continues to be plagued by nagging injuries, but when in the lineup, he is a plus defender with some pop in his bat. The need to use Torres at SS disrupts the infield a bit, but things settle back down when Gregorius returns and gets re-acclimated.
10. Hicks’ back, or another nagging injury, cost him about 30 games, but when in the lineup he continues to be one of the game’s best offensive and defensive centerfielders.
11. When needed, the Yankees’ deeper bench, which includes major league veterans Gardner and LeMahieu, proves versatile and productive. However, injuries force the Yankees to rely too much on their bench, and the second tier of reserves proves less capable.  
12. The Yankees’ front office cautiously monitors the trade market, but will only pull the trigger on a deal that doesn’t come at a high financial cost.

Worst Case Scenario: 85 wins

An inconsistent and fragile starting rotation leads to an overworked bullpen, mitigating the Yankees’ end-game strength and placing a greater burden on the offense to overcome early deficits. The offense is productive, but Judge and Stanton carry too much of the load. On defense, mixing and matching leads to inconsistency and underperformance. Despite obvious holes created by injury and/or underperformance, the Yankees are reticent to add to payroll and fail to make an impactful addition at the deadline.

1. Severino doesn’t return as early as expected, and then only slowly regains his feel. As a result, it isn’t until after the All Star break that the Yankees’ young right hander is a consistent, effective starter, but even then, it’s at a level well below his peak from the prior season.
2. At best, two of Tanaka, Happ and Paxton throw around 180 innings apiece, and the trio collectively performs only around league average. Neither reaches the level of an All Star game selection or Cy Young award consideration, and one proves to be a big disappointment.
3. Sabathia misses about 15 starts during the year, and barely provides 100 below-league average innings. His replacements in the rotation are not particularly effective, placing increased stress on the bullpen.
4. The Yankees’ bullpen is very good, but not as dominant as expected. Injuries, workload and the lack of defined roles all contribute to the disappointment, but regression from a few arms is also culprit. In particular, Aroldis Chapman struggles a bit with his transition from a fireballer to a pitcher, while Adam Ottavino has some trouble adjusting to the American League.
5. Judge and Stanton both have productive seasons that approximate their 2018 campaigns, but at least one suffers from a nagging injury or two, causing them to miss 20-30 games.
6. Sanchez makes small improvements as a receiver, but his rebound with the bat is muted. He is still a quality catcher, but no longer All Star caliber.  
7. Torres and Andujar are productive offensive players, but suffer a sophomore decline. Their defense is a bigger problem, however, as Andujar quickly reverts to bad habits in the field, especially with his throws, and Torres struggles with covering both middle infield positions.
8. One of Voit and Bird emerges as a merely average offensive first baseman, but the other struggles in a platoon role, leading to a demotion.
9. Tulowitzki is barely able to stay on the field, testing the Yankees depth. The need to use Torres at SS disrupts the infield, and Gregorius return comes too late to supply the deficiency.
10. Hicks’ back keeps him on the IL longer than expected, and then other nagging injuries further limit his playing time. For 100 games, he is a valuable offensive and defensive center fielder, but his absences prove costly.
11. Injuries expose the Yankees’ bench. Gardner and LeMahieu are adequate replacements for a time, but prove incapable of approximating the value of the players they are replacing. Also, the need to use them as everyday players creates a hole on the bench that can’t be filled by organizational depth.
12. The Yankees’ front office cautiously monitors the trade market, but decides against spending money or trading prospects, all but abandoning any attempt to sneak into the postseason as a wild card.

Yankees’ Actual Win Total vs. Captain’s Blog Prediction, 2010-2018