American League East
The Yankees and Red Sox are on equal footing in the East, so just about anything could tip the balance. Boston’s bullpen looks to be its biggest weakness, and a few extra blown saves could make the difference in the division race. The rotation is the Yankees’ Achilles heel, and if Luis Severino isn’t healthy, Boston should take the top spot. All things considered, the Bronx Bombers have a little more depth, so if health treats each team equally, the Yankees should celebrate their first division title in seven seasons. The Rays will spend most of the season looking up at the Yankees and Red Sox, but with a good young rotation and solid lineup, Tampa should have enough to claim a wild card spot. All three teams’ position in the league should be bolstered by beating up on the Blue Jays and Orioles. Even if the Blue Jays surprise with an early season improvement, chances are the organization will look to deal veterans for prospects at some point, making them a second half laggard. The only suspense regarding the Orioles is whether they will become the second team in MLB history to have consecutive 110 loss seasons (1962-63 Mets).
American League Central
If health was guaranteed, the Indians would be a good bet to repeat as division champions. Elite position players like Francisco Lindor and Jose Ramirez, along with one of the game’s best rotations, should be enough to keep the Indians atop a weak AL Central. However, Lindor and Ramirez have already been nicked, and the chances of Kluber, Clevinger, Carrasco and Bauer each throwing 175+ innings again seems like wishful thinking. If any of these players misses significant time, the Indians advantage in the division would dissipate, leaving open a path for the Minnesota Twins to finish ahead. That’s why the window will close on Cleveland in 2019. The Twins added veteran power to complement a solid young core, creating the kind of lineup that should feast on the weak pitching at the bottom of the division. The team’s increased run support should be enough for a rotation that looks to be league average, but with potential to surprise. The AL Central may still be the Indians to lose, but the Twins seem well positioned to accommodate. Among the bottom feeders, the White Sox seem like the best bet for improvement, as the team’s young prospects continue to filter into the big leagues. The Tigers and Royals are much further behind in their rebuilds, and 2019 will probably feature more tear downs around the trade deadline.
American League West
The Astros should once again coast in the West, with their margin of victory determined by the extent to which young talent can replace departed veterans in the rotation. Second place should be a battle between the Athletics and Angels, with each team’s starting rotation being the handicap that prevents either from grabbing a wild card. Although the Mariners and Rangers are both in rebuilding mode, Seattle could manage to stay around the .500 mark thanks to a rotation of solid veterans and the potential of Japanese lefty Yusei Kikuchi.
Playoff Teams: Astros, Yankees, Red Sox, Rays, Twins
In the Hunt: Indians, Athletics, Angels
Wait ‘til Next Year: Blue Jays, Orioles, White Sox, Tigers, Royals, Mariners, Rangers
National League East
The Phillies made the off season’s biggest splash by adding Bryce Harper, but the earlier additions of Andrew McCutchen, Jean Segura, David Robertson and JT Realmuto figure just as prominently. If the rotation solidifies behind Aaron Nola and Jake Arrieta, the Phillies should be able to leap frog the other contenders in what promises to be the most competitive division in baseball. The Phillies addition of Harper comes at the expense of the Nationals, but that doesn’t make Washington a lost cause. On the contrary, adding Patrick Corbin and Anibal Sanchez to the top duo of Max Scherzer and Stephen Strasburg gives Washington the best rotation in the league, and that should be enough for a wild card. The Mets have a formidable rotation of their own, not to mention a much deeper bullpen and lineup, but New York may be depending on too many young position players to perform consistently under the pressure of pennant race baseball. The Braves also boast young talent, with a farm system brimming with prospects, but the rotation and bullpen are thin, and the lineup is depending too much on older veterans. If Atlanta makes a last minute play for Craig Kimbrel and/or Dallas Keuchel, it could reassert itself in the division, but otherwise, fourth place seems a likely landing spot.
National League Central
The Cubs are often taken for granted, but the team still has the most talent in the division. If Kris Bryant bounces back and Yu Darvish is healthy, the Cubs should be in good position for another pennant run. Adding Paul Goldschmidt should give the Cardinals a big offensive boost, while Andrew Miller brings much needed bullpen stability. Early injury concerns about Carlos Martinez dampen optimism a bit, but St. Louis is well positioned for a wild card run. The Pirates’ have a sneaky rotation and a solid veteran lineup. That may not be enough to make the playoffs, but it should keep Pittsburgh competitive. The Brewers’ failure to upgrade the rotation and recent injuries to key bullpen arms could send Milwaukee back toward the bottom of the division, looking down at only an improved Reds team, who added several veterans to begin the long process of establishing respectability.
National League West
The West is a two-team race between the Rockies and Dodgers. Los Angeles has the most talent, but its roster is riddled with question marks related to health, including, most importantly, long-time ace Clayton Kershaw. Any vulnerability experienced by the Dodgers should open the door for the Rockies, who add Daniel Murphy to an already potent lineup and one more year of experience to a young, burgeoning rotation. If the Rockies have a flaw, it’s the bullpen, especially after absorbing the loss of Adam Ottavino, but if Bud Black can come up with an end-of-game formula, they’ll finally dethrone the Dodgers. The Padres should be much improved, thanks to both the off season signing of Manny Machado and continued development of the team’s many prospects. Still, San Diego is at least one more year away from contention, though it wouldn’t be a surprise if they push .500. That pursuit could be helped by the weakened state of the Diamondbacks and Giants, who should vie for the cellar.
Playoff Teams: Phillies, Nationals, Cubs, Cardinals, Rockies
In the Hunt: Mets, Braves, Pirates, Brewers, Dodgers
Wait ‘til Next Year: Marlins, Reds, Padres, Diamondbacks, Giants
Playoff Scenarios
Cardinals beat Dodgers in one game playoff for wild card.
Nationals beat Cardinals in Wild Card game.
Rays beat Red Sox in Wild Card game.
Phillies beat Rockies in NLDS.
Nationals beat Cubs in NLDS.
Astros beat Twins in ALDS.
Yankees beat Rays in ALDS
Nationals beat Phillies in NLCS.
Yankees beat Astros in ALCS (if Yankees acquire an ace starter at the deadline)
Astros beat Yankees in ALCS (if Yankees do not acquire an ace starter at the deadline)
Yankees/Astros beat Nationals in World Series.
Regular Season Awards
NL Cy Young: Aaron Nola
NL MVP: Nolan Arenado
NL ROY: Victor Robles
AL Cy Young: Gerrit Cole
AL MVP: Aaron Judge
AL ROY: Eloy Jimenez
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