Can anything to be gleaned from team records during the exhibition season? Or, does Opening Day truly wipe the page clean? Conventional wisdom scoffs at those who pay too much attention to spring training games, but maybe a team’s pre-season performance shouldn’t be completely ignored?
Distribution of Spring Training and Regular Season Winning Percentage Divergence, Since 1984
Note: Tie games excluded from winning percentage calculations.
Source: baseball-reference.com, mlb.com and springtrainingmagazine.com
The correlation between exhibition and regular season winning percentages has historically been low. Since 1984, the correlation coefficient is only 0.16, and from 1998 and 2010, the relationship is a similarly weak 0.20. In terms of the difference between winning percentages, over the longer span, just over 30% of teams had regular season records within 10% of their spring training results. So, in aggregate, the convention wisdom seems to be correct. However, an anecdotal look at the best and worst records suggests a link that may be more than just coincidental.
Top-10 and Bottom-10 Spring Training Records Since 1984
Note: Excludes the 1990 and 1995 exhibition seasons, which were shortened by work stoppages. Tie games excluded from winning percentage calculations.
Source: baseball-reference.com, mlb.com and springtrainingmagazine.com
Since 1984, seven of the top-10 spring training records presaged a post season appearance, with the group posting a median record of 92-70 and aggregate winning percentage of .547. At the other end of the spectrum, only the 1984 Cubs rebounded from a poor March to play in October, as the bottom-10 spring training teams ended up with a median record of 68-94 and aggregate winning percentage of .434. So, at least on the margin, a team’s performance in spring training does seem to have predictive value. But, how far does this link go?
In order to better measure the relationship between spring and summer performance, team records in each schedule were separated into cohorts and then compared over three time periods beginning with 1984 (first year of database I have been maintaining), 1998 (last expansion year) and 2010 (beginning of the current decade). The charts below illustrate the relationship by showing how teams within a defined spring training cohort performed during the regular season.
Regular Season vs. Spring Training Winning Percentage Distribution, Since 1984
Note: Tie games excluded from winning percentage calculations.
Source: baseball-reference.com, mlb.com and springtrainingmagazine.com
Since 1984, having a horrible spring has generally meant a losing regular season. Nearly 75% of teams with a winning percentage below 30% in March ended up finishing the regular season below .500. Meanwhile, on the positive end, though the relationship hasn’t been as strong, a still sizeable 65% of teams that were successful in 70% of their spring training games have gone to a winning regular season. Heading away from the extremes, however, spring training results start to resemble more of coin flip. Playing between .300 and .600 in spring training has proven to have little predictive value as the relative distribution of regular season records has been somewhat even.
Regular Season vs. Spring Training Winning Percentage Distribution, Since 1998 and 2010
Note: Tie games excluded from winning percentage calculations.
Source: baseball-reference.com, mlb.com and springtrainingmagazine.com
The game has changed quite a bit since 1984, so it’s noteworthy that narrowing the period of comparison suggests a strengthening of the overall relationship between spring training and regular season records. Since 1998, all 11 teams in the lowest spring training cohort ended up having a losing regular season, while over 70% of the best March teams finished over .500. In fact, since 1998 and 2010, a good spring has increasingly meant a good a summer, and vice versa.
Spring Training Winning Percentage Distribution of Playoff Teams, Since 1984
Note: Tie games excluded from winning percentage calculations.
Source: baseball-reference.com, mlb.com and springtrainingmagazine.com
The strengthening link between the pre season and regular season has had meaningful implications for the post season. Since 1984, 65% of playoff teams started off with a spring training record over .500 (54% of all teams), while only 12% of teams playing in October won less than 40% of their games in March (16% of all teams).
Breakdown of Postseason and Non-Postseason Teams by Spring Training Winning Percentage, 1984, 1998, 2010
Note: Tie games excluded from winning percentage calculations.
Source: baseball-reference.com, mlb.com and springtrainingmagazine.com
Looking from the bottom up, the relationship between having a good spring and making the playoffs is even clearer. If your favorite team finishes above .700 in March, there’s a good chance you’ll be watching them in October. Otherwise, the relative number of post season teams in each spring training cohort starts to drop precipitously, until you get to the lowest extreme, at which point hope for the post season is all but lost.
Opening Day does wipe the slate clean, but teams that stumbled badly during the exhibition season probably shouldn’t expect a spring cleaning. Meanwhile, although teams that raced through their March schedule still have a long way to the October finish line, history suggests they have at least a small head start. So, by all means enjoy Opening Day, but don’t ignore Spring Training. In baseball, hope springs eternal, but reality sets in fast.
— Depends on the mgr and and front office.
Some strive to win at all costs. Others are taking a look at new talent. End of the day, the only thing that really counts is the regular season.