The Captain's Blog

Five years after parting, the Yankees and Robinson Cano could be headed for a reunion. The Mariners, who have begun an aggressive tear down, are reportedly eager to shed the $120 million remaining on Cano’s contract, and the Bronx Bombers are one of the teams that has expressed an interest. But, is Cano still a good fit in pinstripes, and, if so, how would such a deal work?

Would Cano have a role on the current Yankee team? Before crunching the numbers, let’s consider that question first. Now 36, Cano’s best defensive days are in the past, and his usefulness as a second baseman is waning, but he can still hit. Looking further out, it’s not hard to imagine Cano serving as a DH in the mold of David Ortiz, who, incidentally, had some of his best seasons after the age Cano is now. For this year, however, Cano’s increased versatility could be of particular value.  With Didi Gregorius expected to miss at least the first half, and the Yankees’ infield now in flux, Cano could be a stop gap at second (even if the team also acquires Manny Machado). In addition, Cano, who played 14 games at first base in 2018, could serve in that role as the lefty platoon complement to Luke Voit, and also DH when Giancarlo Stanton plays the field.

Robinson Cano vs. David Ortiz: wRC+ by Age

Source: fangraphs.com

Getting his bat in the lineup could take some creativity, but the value of doing so is unquestionable. Not only did Cano’s wRC+ of 136 in half a season surpass his career mark, but it ranked 21st in all of baseball among hitters who had at least 300 plate appearances. What’s more, Cano being a lefty and having a relatively higher rate of contact would add needed diversification to the Yankees’ lineup.

The answer is clear. Cano fits. But, does his contract?

The length of Cano’s deal was a stumbling block five years ago, so reacquiring the backend now doesn’t seem to make much sense. That’s where the Mariners’ desperation comes into play. If, as reported, Seattle DM Jerry Dipoto is a motivated seller, the Yankees could end up turning what had been an expected burden into a bargain.

One framework for a deal could involve the transfer of Jacoby Ellsbury. Because Cano is owed about $80 million more than the Yankees’ oft-injured outfielder, the Mariners would have to throw in more cash to offset the difference. Just how much they contribute would likely be tied to the quality of prospect they received in return, which should be important to a rebuilding team. A whole range of considerations could go into the final terms, but as an illustration, let’s assume the Mariners agreed to pay a conservative one-third of the difference between the two players.

Potential Trade Analysis: Cano + $24 Million for Jacoby Ellsbury + Prospect Package
Note: Assumes Mariners send $71.5 million to Yankees. Cash is amortized over five years. AAV is based on total value of each contract.

Source: Proprietary calculations

Under this scenario, the Mariners would essentially breakeven over the next two years and then save about $20 million annually over the final three. Meanwhile, the Yankees would enjoy a short-term AAV and real cash savings before assuming an approximately $19 million AAV/real cost in 2021 and beyond. Over the course of the full five years, however, the Bronx Bombers would effectively be paying Cano just under $10 million per year, assuming, of course, that they consider Jacoby Ellsbury to be a sunk cost with little chance of returning value in 2019 and 2020. At $10 million, the Yankees would simply need Cano to be about a one-win player, which is something well within the realm of possibility, even if he becomes a full-time DH.

If something gives the Yankees pause about the deal outlined above, it’s probably the $19 million AAV hit in the last three years of Cano’s contract. That could especially be a concern if the team plans to exceed the luxury tax threshold and remain above it for the foreseeable future. If that were the case, it would be beneficial to structure the deal in a way that spreads more cash over the full term of Cano’s contract, and the best way to do that would be to remove Ellsbury from the equation.

Potential Trade Analysis: Cano + $71.5 Million for Prospect Package

Note: Assumes Mariners send $24 million to Yankees. Cash is amortized over five years. AAV is based on total value of each contract.

Source: Proprietary calculations

Under the deal depicted above (which would be subject to approval by the Commissioner’s Office because of the amount of money involved), the Mariners would simply substitute cash for the money they would otherwise have owed Ellsbury. Assuming the Mariners placed little value on actually obtaining the centerfielder, this should have little impact on their willingness to make a deal. If anything, being able to accelerate their savings might be an inducement. For the Yankees, the real cost of this structure is neutral, but the AAV effect is inverted. By taking on a big AAV hit up front, the Yankees would pay more in luxury tax at the onset, but be exposed to much lower number in years when the tax rate would presumably be higher. One added benefit to the Yankees would come if Ellsbury continues to be sidelined by injury. That would allow the Yankees to collect on their insurance policy and lower the real cost of their payroll (though AAV would be unaffected).

Other off season acquisitions (signing Bryce Harper and Manny Machado, for example) could mitigate or even negate the proposition, but as things stand, the Yankees should at least seriously consider reuniting with Cano. A lot of water has passed under the bridge since he departed, but importantly, no bridges have been burned. Even Cano’s PED suspension shouldn’t be an obstacle. And, ironically, that revelation might actually make a reunion more likely. If PED concerns were a reason the Yankees parted company with Cano, having that issue out in the open would reduce the associated risk. Granted, the Yankees need be convinced that Cano is healthy and capable of maintaining his offensive production, but if they can reasonably come to that conclusion, reacquiring Cano seems like a smart move at the right price.