The Captain's Blog

All data is final as of October 29, 2018.

One of baseball’s most often repeated axioms states that, although home runs work just fine in the regular season, once the calendar turns to October, small ball becomes a more effective method for scoring runs. This mantra is proclaimed with such certainty that all who hear it seem to unquestionably accept its infallibility. However, since the dawn of the wild card era, history has suggested otherwise (though home runs have declined in the post season since 1995, runs scored by other means have dropped more significantly). So, as a service to those home run fanatics who refuse to accept the short comings of the long ball in the post season, the Captain’s Blog Presents the 2018 Long Ball Meter (click on the links for 2016 and 2017), which will not only keep a running breakdown of how runs are scored this postseason, but also present that data in a historical context. In addition, a historical comparison (since 1995) of the share of post season innings by role is also presented.

Current Season Data

Long Ball Meter: Regular Season vs. Postseason, 2018

Note: Long/Small Ball Meter compares the rate of runs scored via the home run to all other means. Regular season data is for playoff teams only.  Averages are per team per game.
Source: Baseball-reference.com

Long Ball vs. Small Ball Tactics: Regular Season vs. Postseason, 2018

Note: Averages are per team per game.
Source: Baseball-reference.com

Historical Data

Long Ball Meter: Regular Season vs. Postseason, 1995 to 2018

Note: Long/Small Ball Meter compares the rate of runs scored via the home run to all other means. Regular season data is for playoff teams only.  Averages are per team per game.
Source: Baseball-reference.com

Long Ball vs. Small Ball Tactics: Regular Season vs. Postseason, 1995 to 2018

Note: Averages are per team per game.
Source: Baseball-reference.com

Relative Rates of Runs Scored via HR and Non-HR, 1995-2018

Note: Points above 100% indicate runs were more prevalent by the indicated means during the post season. Regular season data is for playoff teams only.
Source: Baseball-reference.com

Rate of Runs Scored via the Home Run, Regular Season vs. Postseason, 1995-2018

Note: PS = Postseason; RS = Regular season.
Source: Baseball-reference.com

Home Runs Per Game: Regular Season vs. Postseason, 1995 to 2018

Note: PS = Postseason; RS = Regular season. Averages are per team per game.
Source: Baseball-reference.com

Runs Scored Per Home Run: Regular Season vs. Postseason, 1995 to 2018

Note: PS = Postseason; RS = Regular season.
Source: Baseball-reference.com

Post Season Innings by Role, 1995 to 2018

Source: Baseball-reference.com