American League East
The Yankees and Red Sox should battle each other all season, though each is capable of breaking away with a blowout season. However, both teams have rotation concerns (at least what qualifies as concerns for teams capable of winning 100 games), meaning the Bronx Bombers’ bullpen depth could give them the edge. The Blue Jays’ starting rotation will keep them in the race, assuming Marcus Stroman and Aaron Sanchez are healthy, but a suspect lineup and having to face off against the division leaders for 36 games will hamper their wild card efforts. Are the Jays willing to make a big trade to add players at the deadline? If so, their postseason aspirations would be more credible, but Toronto has the feel of an organization that might not mind waiting until next year. That’s why a deadline trade of Josh Donaldson seems more likely. Meanwhile, the Orioles and Rays, though respectable in a tough division, will battle to the bottom, with Baltimore’s descent accelerating after the trade deadline, especially if they choose to trade Manny Machado.
American League Central
After absorbing key losses like Bryan Shaw and Carlos Santana, the Indians will take a step back, but fortunately for the Tribe, there isn’t another team close on their heels. The Twins will benefit from a favorable intradivision schedule that should inflate their win total, but the Indians will enjoy that advantage as well, so Minnesota will have to settle for a wild card. The White Sox and Royals are teams going in the opposite direction. Kansas City could tread water for a month or so, but by the time the deadline rolls around, the Royals are likely to be sellers. The White Sox, on the other hand, will probably struggle early as their talented collection of young players get acclimated, but a late season improvement could be in the offing. As a result, the two teams are likely to cross paths during the season, and continue headed in the opposite direction for years to come. Last, and most certainly least, are the Tigers, who figure to be the favorite for the number one pick in next year’s amateur draft.
American League West
The Astros are the class of the West, and should easily run away with the division. Despite an active off season, the Angels haven’t moved the needle much, and, if Shohei Ohtani isn’t the savior that was envisioned, the Halos could struggle to even approach .500. If there’s one saving grace for the Angels, it could be that the weakness of the teams below will be even greater than expected, allowing the team to vulture enough wins to sneak into a Wild Card. From among the bottom three in the division, the Mariners are best equipped to make a run, but Seattle seems destined to once again hover around .500. The Rangers and Athletics both bring a patchwork roster into the season, and lack the pitching depth needed to be a viable contender.
League Leaders: Astros, Indians, Yankees, Red Sox
In the Hunt: Twins, Blue Jays, Angels, Mariners
Wait ‘til Next Year: Orioles, Rays, White Sox, Royals, Tigers, Rangers, Athletics
National League East
The Nationals face no credible challenge in the division, so their mission on the way to 100 wins will be to position themselves for the postseason. The Phillies will be the surprise of baseball. The team’s combination of emerging youth, both fresh up from the minors and established in the big leagues, and experienced veterans are the perfect recipe for a substantial improvement. With a strong farm system, lots of cash and a willingness to add players now and for the future, the Phillies could be buyers at the deadline, which would put them in position to steal a Wild Card spot if other teams in the league falter. The top end of the Mets’ rotation gives them a puncher’s chance, especially with two patsies in the division, but it’s hard to envision the team staying healthy enough to go the distance. The lack of position player depth, offensive versatility and quality bullpen arms also play against the Mets, and, despite having two bona fide aces in Jacob DeGrom and Noah Syndergaard, these deficiencies will be difficult to overcome. The Braves and Marlins are in varying stages of a rebuild. Although Atlanta could have its moments, Miami’s focus will likely be on the Tigers, as both teams battle for the worst record in baseball.
National League Central
The Cubs’ offseason basically maintained the status quo, as Yu Darvish replaced Jake Arrieta and Brandon Morrow took over the closer’s role from Wade Davis. However, both could prove to be a bit of a downgrade. Chicago is fortified by its core of All Star position players, and its rotation is the deepest in the division, but the Cubs won’t cruise to another division title. The Brewers made arguably the biggest splash in the offseason, adding Christian Yelich and Lorenzo Cain, but they didn’t fortify their rotation, which will rely on a combination of young arms and suspect veterans. That decision could prove costly in Milwaukee’s quest to make the postseason. The Cardinals are in a similar situation. Despite adding Marcell Ozuna, St. Louis’ rotation is very thin at the back end, and the bullpen also seems shaky. The combination of a free agent starter and Greg Holland might have catapulted the Cardinals to the top of the division (and the Brewers too), but unless help is coming from inside the organization, a wild card will not come out of the Central. The Pirates and Reds could both be better than expected, but 70 wins seems about where both will land.
National League West
Three teams will compete for the division title, and each may enjoy an extended period sitting at the top. However, this season, the order will be different. The Rockies made the bullpen a priority this winter, and that could end up being the difference. The Dodgers are still the team to beat, of course, but they seem vulnerable. The loss of Justin Turner for a couple of months won’t help an offense that struggled a bit in the second half, while the rotation could be hard pressed to repeat its (surprise) performance from last year. With the loss of Brandon Morrow, the bullpen may not be able to supply the deficiency of the LA rotation, creating a drag that pulls the Dodgers back down to earth and into a wild card spot. The Diamondbacks had a magical 2017 that won’t likely repeat, especially with the loss of JD Martinez. However, Arizona still has enough talent, as well as a relatively deep rotation, to compete, though they may need to make another midseason acquisition of a bat. The Giants’ strategy of loading up on veterans on the wrong side of 30 was suspect to begin with, but with the loss of Madison Bumgarner and Jeff Samardzija, San Francisco could be poised for a rare even-year implosion. The Padres will keep making strides toward competiveness, and may exceed expectations, but San Diego is still rebuilding and should continue to struggle in a relatively strong division.
League Leaders: Nationals, Cubs, Rockies, Dodgers
In the Hunt: Phillies, Mets, Brewers, Cardinals, Diamondbacks
Wait ‘til Next Year: Braves, Marlins, Pirates, Reds, Giants, Padres
Playoff Scenarios
Dodgers beat Diamondbacks in Wild Card game.
Red Sox beat Twins in Wild Card game.
Nationals beat Dodgers in NLDS.
Cubs beat Rockies in NLDS.
Astros beat Red Sox in ALDS.
Yankees beat Indians in ALDS
Nationals beat Cubs in NLCS.
Yankees beat Astros in ALCS.
Nationals beat Yankees in World Series.
Regular Season Awards
NL Cy Young: Stephen Strasburg
NL MVP: Nolan Arenado
NL ROY: Ronald Acuna
AL Cy Young: Chris Sale
AL MVP: Gary Sanchez
AL ROY: Willy Adames
[…] « 2018 MLB Predictions […]