All data is updated as of the end of the 2016 World Series.
One of baseball’s most often repeated axioms states that, although home runs work just fine in the regular season, once the calendar turns to October, small ball becomes a more effective method for scoring runs. This mantra is proclaimed with such certainty that all who hear it seem to unquestionably accept its infallibility. Unfortunately, since the dawn of the wild card era, history has suggested otherwise (though home runs have declined in the post season since 1995, runs scored by other means have dropped more significantly). So, as a service to those home run fanatics who refuse to accept the short comings of the long ball in the post season, the Captain’s Blog Presents the 2016 Long/Small Ball Meter, which will not only keep a running breakdown of how runs are scored this postseason, but also present that data in a historical context.
Current Season Data
Long/Small Ball Meter: Regular Season vs. Postseason, 2016
Note: Long/Small Ball Meter compares the rate of runs scored via the home run to all other means. Regular season data is for playoff teams only. Averages are per team per game.
Source: Baseball-reference.com
Long Ball vs. Small Ball Tactics: Regular Season vs. Postseason, 2016
Note: Averages are per team per game.
Source: Baseball-reference.com
Historical Data (for more granular analysis as of 2015, click here)
Long/Small Ball Meter: Regular Season vs. Postseason, 1995 to 2016
Note: Long/Small Ball Meter compares the rate of runs scored via the home run to all other means. Regular season data is for playoff teams only. Averages are per team per game.
Source: Baseball-reference.com
Long Ball vs. Small Ball Tactics: Regular Season vs. Postseason, 1995 to 2016
Note: Averages are per team per game.
Source: Baseball-reference.com
Relative Rates of Runs Scored via HR and Non-HR, 1995-2016
Note: Points above 100% indicate runs were more prevalent by the indicated means during the post season. Regular season data is for playoff teams only.
Source: Baseball-reference.com
Rate of Runs Scored via the Home Run, Regular Season vs. Postseason, 2016
Note: PS = Postseason; RS = Regular season.
Source: Baseball-reference.com
Home Runs Per Game: Regular Season vs. Postseason, 1995 to 2016
Note: PS = Postseason; RS = Regular season. Averages are per team per game.
Source: Baseball-reference.com
Runs Scored Per Home Run: Regular Season vs. Postseason, 1995 to 2016
Note: PS = Postseason; RS = Regular season.
Source: Baseball-reference.com
[…] a bigger impact on postseason wins. It turns out that it is no quite what you think. Well, over at The Captain’s Blog, William Juliano looked into the same idea. William offers up some graphics that compare the two […]
Hi William. Regarding your tweets this morning, you really think ‘big government’ (whatever you mean by that) is to blame for the election of this idiot?
[…] the long ball in the post season, the Captain’s Blog Presents the 2017 Long/Small Ball Meter (see here for 2016), which will not only keep a running breakdown of how runs are scored this postseason, but […]
[…] in the post season, the Captain’s Blog Presents the 2018 Long Ball Meter (click on the links for 2016 and 2017), which will not only keep a running breakdown of how runs are scored this postseason, […]
[…] in the post season, the Captain’s Blog Presents the 2019 Long Ball Meter (click on the links for 2016, 2017 and 2018), which will not only keep a running breakdown of how runs are scored this […]