Sometimes, it’s better to be lucky than good. Or, in the case of the 2016 Texas Rangers, it’s even better to be good at getting lucky.
2016 Pythagorean Differential (Actual minus Expected Winning Percentage)
Source: Baseball-reference.com data, proprietary calculations
Based on run differential, the Rangers should have been a .500 team, not the 95-win juggernaut that ran away with the AL West. However, thanks to a record setting winning percentage of 76.6% in one-run games, the team managed 13 more victories than expected. The result was the third highest Pythagorean differential in major league history (and second highest in a non-strike shortened season), and lots of confused baseball fans left scratching their heads trying to figure out just how they did it.
Ten Highest Pythagorean Differentials, 1901-2016
Note: Excludes seasons shortened by labor disputes. RS% is R/G vs. League Average. RA% is RA/G vs. League Average.
Source: Baseball-reference.com and fangraphs.com data, proprietary calculations
A strong bullpen is one way teams manage to overplay their hand, but the Rangers can’t make that claim. Texas’ relievers posted an ERA of 4.40 and fWAR of 1.7, both in the bottom third of the major leagues, so a shutdown bullpen wasn’t the backbone of the team’s overachievement. But, maybe that shouldn’t be a surprise. When you look at the top-10 teams in terms of Pythagorean differential, a strong bullpen hasn’t necessarily been a hallmark.
Another way for a team to exceed the sum of its parts is to leverage the one thing it does particularly well. Like the 2004 Yankees and 1954 Dodgers, for example, who outscored the league by over 10%. Unfortunately, the Rangers come up short in that regard as well. On a park adjusted basis, the team’s offense and pitching staff were both under par, while in unadjusted terms, its modest advantage at the plate was surrendered on the mound.
Ten Highest Pythagorean Differentials, 1974-2016
Note: Excludes seasons shortened by labor disputes.
Source: Baseball-reference.com and fangraphs.com data, proprietary calculations
At the risk of making some sabermetricians bristle, maybe the Rangers have been more than lucky? Maybe they’ve been clutch? According to fangraphs.com, Texas’ offense has been off the charts in terms of its performance in high leverage situations…the kind of moments that can swing the outcome in a close game. Not only has the Rangers’ offense lapped the league in that regard, but its rating of 7.83 ranks third all time. And, on the pitching side, the team’s high leverage performance has also ranked near the top. When the going has gotten tough, the Rangers have gotten going…and then some.
Clutch vs. Pythagorean Differential, 1974-2016
Note: Red dot represents 2016 Rangers; Total clutch is the sum of offense and pitching scores.
Source: Baseball-reference.com and fangraphs.com data, proprietary calculations
The Rangers aren’t the only lucky teams to exhibit clutch tendencies. Since 1974 (the period from which fangraphs calculates “clutch”), the clubs with the highest Pythagorean differentials all had an offense or pitching staff (or both) that rated highly on the clutch scale. In fact, a comparison of every team’s clutch score to its Pythagorean differential suggests a moderate correlation.
Just because the Rangers have been clutch, doesn’t mean they haven’t been lucky. It’s really a chicken and egg type question, and, quite frankly, the answer doesn’t matter much when considered in the context of measuring what has already happened. In terms of predicting the future, however, the genesis of the Rangers’ clutch performance matters greatly. If the Rangers’ ability to perform in high leverage is a skill, the playoffs should suit them just fine. But, if they’ve simply been fortunate, Texas had better hope its luck hasn’t run out.
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