Who needs the DH? While the run-starved American League continues to experience a scoring drought, the National League has seen an early surge in offense. It’s still very early, but if the over one-half run per game gap between the two leagues is maintained, the senior circuit will outscore the junior for only the second time in the designated hitter era.
Runs/Game, NL vs. AL: 1973-2016YTD
Note: The DH was instituted in 1973.
Source: baseball-reference.com
It can be misleading to compare full season run output to only two weeks, especially considering the cold temperatures in early April. However, even on a month over (abbreviated) month basis, the same relationship is observed. While OPS and runs/game are up significantly in the N.L., both measures show a steep decline to long-time lows in the A.L.
Runs/Game and OPS in April, NL vs. AL: 1973-2016YTD
Source: baseball-reference.com
Two weeks does not a trend make, but it’s hard to pass off such a significant and unexpected disparity as early season randomness. So, what explains the gulf in run production that has emerged between the two leagues? The answer may lie in the bullpen.
Notable Relief Pitchers Who Changed Leagues in 2016
| 2015 | ||||
| Reliever | Movement | ERA | Innings | fWAR |
| Aroldis Chapman | Reds to Yankes | 1.63 | 66 1/3 | 2.6 |
| Ken Giles | Padres to Red Sox | 1.80 | 70 | 2.0 |
| Craig Kimbrel | Nationals to Blue Jays | 2.58 | 59 1/3 | 1.5 |
| Drew Storen | Phillies to Astros | 3.44 | 55 | 1.2 |
| Francisco Rodriguez | Brewers to Tigers | 2.21 | 57 | 1.0 |
| Joakim Soria | Pirates to Royals | 2.53 | 67 2/3 | 0.4 |
Source: baseball-reference.com and fangraphs.com
The importance of relief pitching has steadily grown over the last 30 years, but more recently, shutdown bullpens have become all the rage. The Royals have become the blueprint for this approach, and several teams in the A.L. have followed suit. The Yankees, Red Sox, Blue Jays and Astros are all teams that have seemingly attempted to match and improve upon Kansas City’s formula, and each’s attempt has one thing in common: the importation of an N.L. closer into a shutdown bullpen. Has this emphasis on locking down the late innings caused offense to decline in the AL (and increase in the NL)?
Bullpen vs. Rotation ERA, AL and NL, 1986-2016YTD
Source: fangraphs.com
In the National League, starters and relievers have posted nearly identical ERA and OPS rates, but, in the American League, bullpens have significantly outperformed the rotation. This relationship has been evident in each league over the past few seasons, but it has accelerated so far this year. A small sample size is likely part of the reason for the significant divergence, but the A.L.’s growing emphasis on shutdown bullpens, which has included an influx of top N.L. relievers, also seems to be a likely cause (even though the big name additions highlighted above have either struggled or not pitched in 2016, the emphasis they represent is just as relevant). As a result, even if bullpen performance moderates in the junior circuit, the dampening effect on offense is likely to continue and, perhaps, offset the benefits of the DH.
Leave a Reply