The Yankees enter 2016 with enough talent to win the division, but an equal amount of uncertainty at key positions. Fortunately for the Bronx Bombers, their A.L. East competition is similarly burdened. However, whereas the Yankees’ doubts mostly revolve around health, the other teams in the division are facing questions that are more about performance. That doesn’t lessen the risk, but, perhaps, makes the Yankees a safer pick to reclaim the A.L. East crown.
The Yankees were much improved in 2015. Despite winning only three more games, the team’s overall performance was vastly better. In terms of run differential, the Bronx Bombers posted an 11-game improvement, and, if not for an aggressive push by the Toronto Blue Jays, the Yankees may have ended last year with over 90 wins and a division championship. It’s also worth noting that the Yankees’ improvement wasn’t the result of everything falling into place. The circumstances of last season fell somewhere in between the base and bull cases for 2015, so, when projecting forward, last year’s baseline doesn’t require much of a discount.
At its most basic level, the Yankees’ blueprint for success will depend on maximizing the number of innings thrown by its talented, but fragile rotation, and then protecting every late lead with a shutdown bullpen. If the Bronx Bombers are able to properly leverage the back-end trio of Dellin Betances, Andrew Miller and Aroldis Chapman, they’ll not only improve their chances of winning more games, but perhaps lighten the load on the likes of Masahiro Tanaka, Michael Pineda and Nathan Eovaldi, thereby improving the durability of the team’s fragile rotation.
On offense, the Yankees will rely on another trio. Alex Rodriguez, Carlos Beltran and Mark Teixeira may be a year older, but, if last year is any guide, they’re not slowing down too much. It might be overly optimistic to expect each veteran to remain as healthy and productive as 2015, but even if there is some regression, the upgrade of Starlin Castro over Stephen Drew, as well as a reasonable expectation of improvement from Brett Gardner, Jacoby Ellsbury, and Chase Headley, could make up some of the difference. Had Greg Bird not been lost for the year, his presence would have provided a comforting insurance policy, but even in his absence, the Yankees should be able to rely on a younger, more talented major league bench as well as a farm system capable of yielding reinforcements.
Another potential advantage the Yankees may have this year versus last is a greater willingness by Hal Steinbrenner to spend money for a big mid-season addition. With a new CBA looming (and a likely higher luxury tax threshold), and $50 million due off the books, the Yankees may be willing to spend for an extra bat or starter should the need arise.
Following are 10 key questions outlined and answered in the context of reasonable best, base, and worst case scenarios. Also, scroll below to see how well the Captain’s Blog has predicted the Yankees’ annual win total.
Best Case Scenario: 95 wins
The addition of Castro and Chapman as well as a full season of Severino (subject to an innings limit) give the Yankees a higher ceiling/lower floor this year, even if you allow for some regression from the team’s aged middle of the lineup. As always, health is the main driver of the bull case, but organizational depth should also help mitigate some of the downside risk.
- Masahiro Tanaka and Michael Pineda both pitch at least 180 effective innings.
- Luis Severino picks up where he left of last year, and the Yankees are able to manage his workload without undue distraction or interruption.
- Nathan Eovaldi builds upon his second half improvement and firmly establishes himself as an above average major league starter.
- CC Sabathia or Ivan Nova consistently pitch at or near league average level.
- Dellin Betances, Andrew Miller and Aroldis Chapman live up to expectations and combine to form one of the most dominant bullpen trios in baseball history.
- Chasen Shreve and/or Luis Cessa provide strong middle relief, which not only lengthens the bullpen, but allows Joe Girardi to better manage the workload of the big three.
- Mark Teixeira, Alex Rodriguez, and Carlos Beltran collectively play 400 games, and provide above average offense for players at their respective positions.
- Jacoby Ellsbury, Brett Gardner and Chase Headley all contribute at a level that approximates their 2014 production in pinstripes, both in terms of playing time and production. Each player also reverses recent defensive regression.
- Starlin Castro picks up where he left off at the end of last season (and this spring), and produces at levels that justify his former All Star reputation.
- A younger bench with former highly touted prospects, such as Dustin Ackley and Aaron Hicks, are productive enough to allow Joe Girardi to rest his many aging position players. Also, at least one position player prospect (Aaron Judge, Rob Refsnyder, and Gary Sanchez) emerges as a meaningful contributor on the major league level.
Base Case Scenario: 84 wins
Aches and pains could ground the Bronx Bombers, especially if the team’s younger, more healthy contributors are unable to pick up the slack. Barring a long-term serious injury to several key players, the Yankees can still achieve mediocrity under these conditions, but as each key question is answered negatively, the margin for error becomes increasingly smaller.
- Either Tanaka or Pineda succumbs to injury, limiting each’s effectiveness and durability. At or just above league average performance in a combined 280 innings would be a likely outcome under this scenario.
- Severino falls a little behind the learning curve and suffers from a sophomore slump. The young righty is still effective at times, but he suffers from inconsistency. The Yankees also struggle to properly manage his innings, and the interruptions hamper his effectiveness.
- Eovaldi regresses from his second half form, but is able to turn in 180 innings as a league average pitcher.
- Neither Sabathia nor Nova are able to provide consistency as the fifth starter, as whomever performs the role alternates between effectiveness and early showers.
- The Yankees’ bullpen has a strong season, but even with Chapman, they aren’t able to replicate last year’s performance. Contributing to this scenario could be rust from Chapman’s suspension, fatigue caused by Betances’ workload, and residual impact of Miller’s broken right wrist.
- Shreve isn’t as reliable as he was in the first half of last year, and Cessa isn’t able to smoothly transition to the big leagues. Their inconsistency leaves Joe Girardi without a reliable setup man, forcing him to over-work his big three relievers.
- Teixeira, Rodriguez, and Beltran all suffer aches and pains that limit their ability to stay in the lineup. As a result, the trio is only able to collectively play around 300 games, and, when injuries linger, their effectiveness is hampered.
- Either injury or regression continue to cut modestly into the offensive production and defense of Ellsbury, Gardner or Headley. Two of the three are still positive contributors, but one member suffers a significant decline from last year.
- Castro is an improvement over Drew, but that’s damning him with faint praise. In the field, Castro shows inexperience at 2B, and, despite flashing occasional power, his offense returns to the inconsistency that frustrated the Cubs.
- The Yankees’ bench proves adequate, but incapable of providing enough production to compensate for the needs of an aging offense. Also, minor league reinforcements require an adjustment period before being able to supplement the lineup.
Worst Case Scenario: 73 wins
If the Yankees encounter a reasonable worst case scenario, they’ll do well to stay out of the A.L. East cellar. Like last year, the Yankees can hit rock bottom without catastrophic assumptions, although this time around, the cushion is a little softer.
- Both Tanaka and Pineda can’t make it through a full season, and at times when in the rotation, their effectiveness is hampered by injury. Combined, the two pitchers fail to top 220 innings, and their performance is league average.
- Severino’s initial success proves to be premature. The young righty struggles to make adjustments, and the Yankees are forced to send the 22-year old back to the minors for more seasoning.
- Eovaldi reverts to his mercurial ways and continues to frustrate the Yankees with the most hittable 99 mph fastball in big league history.
- Either Sabathia, Nova, or whomever fills the fifth starter role performs consistently poorly, and not only fails to give the Yankees a chance to win each time out, but also places undue strain on the team’s bullpen.
- One of the Yankees’ big three bullpen arms faces unexpected struggles. Whether due to injury or fatigue, this development leaves the Yankees without the three-headed monster they envisioned at the back end of their bullpen.
- Shreve’s struggles pick up where they left off at the end of 2015, and the team’s other young bullpen arms have difficulty as well. This leaves the Yankees without a bridge in the middle innings, and forces Girardi to overwork the backend of the bullpen.
- Injury and age continue to dog Teixeira, Rodriguez, and Beltran all season. The trio isn’t completely ineffective, but collectively, they provide little more than league average offense in a combined 250 games.
- Either injury or regression cut more significantly into the combined production of Ellsbury, Gardner or Headley. One of the three continues to be a positive contributor, but the other two either suffer an injury or a meaningful production decline from last year. In addition, the combined defense of this trio also continues to decline.
- Castro’s inconsistent offense is compounded by insufficient power and discipline. The former Cub also struggles in the field, forcing the Yankees to limit his innings in favor of a defensive replacement.
- There are no lottery tickets on the Yankees’ bench. Not only does the collection of former prospects fail to offer a glimpse of past promise, but their struggles make Girardi wary of playing them. In addition, the team’s minor league prospects prove they are not yet ready to pick up the slack. This forces Girardi to rely more heavily on his older veterans, exposing the Yankees to increased injury risk.
Yankees’ Actual Win Total vs. Captain’s Blog Prediction, 2010-2015
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