Despite suffering another mediocre year on the field, 2014 was a rebound year for the Yankees in terms of fan engagement. TV ratings on YES were up 15%, while attendance at Yankee Stadium jumped nearly 4%. However, these increases belie a longer-term trend in the opposite direction.
Yankee Stadium Attendance, 2009-2014
Note: Dotted line is a two-year moving average.
Source: Baseball-reference.com
Since opening the new Yankee Stadium in 2009, average attendance has declined by 8.5%, a drop off that accelerated in 2013, when the team missed the playoffs for only the second time in nearly two decades. Compared to 2012, the average crowd in the Bronx last year declined by 7.4%, or exactly double the 3.7% recovery that took place in 2014. Considering the positive impacts of Masahiro Tanaka’s debut and Derek Jeter’s farewell, this modest rebound could prove to be a brief detour from an otherwise steady descent.
Yankees Ratings on YES, 2003-2014
Note: 2013 is first year that YES was carried on the Cablevision system. Rating is based on viewing households compared to Nielsen estimates for total New York market size. 2004 Household number not available. 2008 rating is estimated based on 2009 total New York market households and may differ from the actual rating.
Source: YES Network, Nielsen, New York Times, TV By the Numbers
The decline in Yankees’ attendance pales in comparison to the drop in ratings on the YES Network. Before this year’s 15% spike, Yankee games on YES had experienced four consecutive years of decline. Between 2009 and 2013, the average number of TV households tuning into the Yankees fell an alarming 44%. Even with this season’s increase, the overall drop off during this period is still 35%. As a result, in 2013, ratings on YES dipped below 4% for the first time since 2003, when the YES network was finally included on the Cablevision system. In fact, it plummeted below the 3% threshold, below the rates recorded when the team’s games were televised on MSG (in 2001, the year before YES was launched, Yankee games drew a HH rating of 3.1). This season’s rebound returned the level to just below 3%, but, once again, the Yankees’ share of TV viewers in the New York market could continue to decline without support from Jeter.
Should the Yankees be concerned about declining ratings and attendance? On the one hand, the organization has done a good job insulating itself from short-term fluctuations in fan interest. The combination of a long-term rights deal with YES (which is now 80%-owned by 21st Century Fox) and high-end season ticket base, which, so far, according to team brass, has proven to be relatively inelastic, would seem to suggest the Yankees’ bottom line isn’t overly dependent on how many people are watching. Still, the Yankees’ brand is based on not only winning, but having star power, so, if those elements remain absent, a continued decline in attendance and ratings could eventually hit the team where it hurts…in the wallet.
As the organization’s brass looks to attack the cost side of its income statement, it shouldn’t lose sight of the fact that a strong top line often flows to the bottom. That’s the formula the Yankees have used to not only make lots of money, but also win lots of games. So, why have they deviated from it? The most logical reason seems to be the franchise has tried to have its cake and eat it too. However, with two years of lost post season revenue, as well as significant attendance and ratings declines over the same period, the Yankees may have no choice but to reverse course and revert to the successful business plan of the recent past. Otherwise, the Yankees’ performance on the field will continue to decline, and the level of fan interest will likely follow suit.
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