Playing .500 on the road while cleaning up at home has long been a prescription for success in baseball. No wonder the 2014 Yankees have been such a failure. With only 10 home games remaining, the Bronx Bombers are at the threshold of their first losing season at Yankee Stadium since 1991, and the offense is entirely to blame.
Yankees’ Actual vs. Pythagorean Home Record, 1901-2014
Note: Oriole Park from 1901-1902; Hilltop Park from 1903-1912 (and Wiedenmeyer’s Park in 1904); Polo Grounds from 1912-1922; Yankee Stadium I from 1923 to 1973; Shea Stadium from 1974 to 1975; Yankee Stadium II 1976 to 2008 (and Shea Stadium in 1998); and Yankee Stadium III from 2009 to present. Source: Baseball-reference.com
The Yankees are teetering at one game over .500 at home despite being outscored by 30 runs in the Bronx. If the team finishes below that mark, it will mark only the 14th time in franchise history that the home crowd was witness to more losses than victories. Either way, the Yankees should consider themselves lucky to have won so many games at home. Barring an outburst in the final 10 games, the Bronx Bombers’ run differential at Yankee Stadium will likely go down as one of their all-time worst. To date, the Yankees’ Pythagorean winning percentage of 0.449 at home ranks eighth lowest in franchise history, and there’s still a chance it could crack the bottom-five.
Yankees’ Runs/Game at Home, 1901-2014
Source: Baseball-reference.com
How have the Yankees managed to sink so low at the Stadium? Don’t blame the pitchers, whose collective ERA of 3.61 is the lowest at home since 1999. The reason the Yankees have been outscored by so many runs in the Bronx is because of their anemic offense. The inaptly named Bombers have tallied only 3.6 runs per game at Yankee Stadium, the ninth lowest all time and worst level of production since 1972 (all eight seasons with a lower average occurred during either the dead ball era or pitching dominant period of the late-1960s/early-1970s). In terms of OPS+, the Yankees current rate of 96 at home ranks as the second lowest since 1973 (the first year full data is available), trailing only the 1990 season. And, one final insult to injury. The only teams who have scored fewer runs in front of the home crowd this season are the Mets and Padres, who play at cavernous ballparks. Maybe the Yankees should bring in the fences too?
Yankees’ Home vs. Road Statistics
Source: baseball-reference.com and fangraphs.com
The odd thing about the Yankees’ inability to score runs at home is they’ve had much more success denting the plate on the road, despite posting the same dismal peripheral numbers. With 4.3 runs scored per game away from the Bronx, the Yankees actually rank among the top-10 in the league. Had the Yankees matched their road output at home, they may have been able to sneak into the playoffs. To date, the team has already lost 12 home games when limiting the opposition to four or fewer runs, so even a modest rate of 4.3 runs per game at Yankee Stadium would have likely made a big difference.
Yankees’ W-L% in Home Games with Four or Fewer Runs Allowed, 1901-2014
Note: 2014 games total is pro-rated.
Source: Baseball-reference.com
Two years of historically bad offense have finally come home to roost. The Yankees struggles at home are not so much a flaw in design as a symptom of the overall ills that have plagued the team’s offense since last year. The answer isn’t to tailor the lineup to exploit Yankee Stadium, but rather acquire and retain the best players possible. The Yankees can go home again, but that requires a re-commitment to stacking the roster instead of trying to win with a bluff. Hopefully, the team’s brain trust understands this. Otherwise, next season, the Yankees still won’t be able to hit at home, and their fans may decide to hit the road.
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