The Captain's Blog

The Yankees find themselves idle on Labor Day for the first time since 2005 and on only the second scheduled date in franchise history (1994 was victim to the strike, and rain postponed games in 1922, 1933, 1935). Considering how poorly this year’s offense has performed, the day off seems rather appropriate. Because of the team’s slumbering bats, the Yankees enter the home stretch with their worst record on September 1 since 1995. That year, the Bronx Bombers rallied to win the Wild Card. Unless the Yankees’ offense awakens suddenly, a similar turnaround doesn’t seem likely.

The Yankees’ season-long offensive malaise has been a surprise to many. “If only the players would hit to the back of their baseball cards” has become a common refrain from fans and pundits alike. A careful look at the numbers, however, tells a different story. With the exception of Brian McCann, every other Yankee hitter has at least performed close to a reasonable expectation. How did the mighty Bronx Bombers come to such a sorry state? Before answering that larger question, it makes sense to examine each component of the offense on an individual basis.

Yankees 2014 Offensive Performance vs. Career and Recent Rates
Note: Includes hitters with at least 100 plate appearances. Snapshots below are limited to hitters with at least 200 plate appearances.
Source: Baseball-reference.com

Above is a summary and below are a series snapshots for each Yankees’ position player with at least 200 plate appearances this season. For each, 2014 OPS/OPS+ is accompanied by the player’s age as well as career and three-year production levels. This juxtaposition strikes at the heart of the “back of the baseball card” argument, and shifts the blame for the team’s poor offense higher up in the food chain.

Jacoby Ellsbury‘s contract was considered an “overpay” during the offseason, but at least in year one, it has proven to be a bargain. Fangraphs.com estimates Ellsbury has already earned his salary, and there is still a month to go. What makes this assessment even more impressive is most of his value has been attributed to his offense. With the bat, Ellsbury has had one of his finest seasons, performing above his career OPS+ and in line with the level established over the previous three years. The 30-year old centerfielder has more than pulled his weight this year, so those in search of unfilled expectations must look elsewhere.

Fresh off a new team-friendly contract extension, Brett Gardner has had the best offensive season of his career, particularly in the power department. Gardner’s 16 homers are more than any previous two seasons combined, a development that has fortuitously helped stem the team’s loss of power. Although Gardner has made steady improvement over the last three years, his production in 2014 has exceeded all but the most optimistic forecasts.

Derek Jeter’s final season will easily rank as his worst. Barring a September surge, the Captain’s offensive production will pale in comparison to both his career and recent performance. However, anyone expecting Jeter to attain those levels wasn’t being realistic. Older short stops seldom perform at high offensive levels, even when not coming off a lost season to major ankle surgery. So, if the Yankees planned on a bigger contribution from the future Hall of Famer, they were clearly guilty of wishful thinking.

Brian McCann’s first season in pinstripes has been a disappointment. The catcher has struggled for most of the year, and hasn’t come close to approaching league average rates, much less his career OPS+ of 117. However, it should be noted that McCann’s recent offensive production has been more modest. So, although he is a player who hasn’t matched the back of his baseball card, going forward, the Yankees probably shouldn’t bank on a rebound to his career level.

Mark Teixeira has battled to stay healthy this year, much less produce at levels that meet expectations. However, a careful look at the first baseman’s numbers suggests he has done just that. With age advancing and injuries mounting, Teixeira has seen a steady decline from lofty career totals, and his 2014 output is in line with that trend. The Yankees’ challenge over the next two years will be to maximize Teixeira’s contribution, but that process begins with the realization that he is no longer capable of playing every day nor being a fixture in the middle of the lineup. Teixeira has performed well in New York, but as his time in pinstripes starts to fade, the Yankees need to be more proactive in how they handle the transition.

At first glance, Carlos Beltran seems like another big disappointment. Over the last three years, Beltran’s OPS+ of 136 was actually higher than his career rate, so it’s hard to blame the Yankees for banking on production at a similar level. On the other hand, there’s no excuse for placing so much emphasis on a player entering his age-37 season, especially when the organization allowed Cano to leave because of concerns about his production at similar points in his career. Although Beltran’s drop off has exceeded reasonable expectations, his muted production has not reached a point where the Yankees can throw their hands up and feign surprise.

Brian Roberts is an odd case because the second baseman exceeded expectations on two levels. Perhaps the biggest surprise is he was able to stay healthy. Before being released, Roberts had amassed more plate appearances than in any one season since 2009. What’s more, his OPS+ of 86 was actually higher than the level produced in three abbreviated seasons prior. Nonetheless, Roberts struggled all year with the bat and glove, and proved to be a woeful choice to replace Cano.

Ichiro Suzuki has transitioned from a superstar into a very useful fourth outfielder. The only problem is the Yankees have relied on him as a quasi-regular. Had the Yankees been willing to invest in an appropriate level of depth, Ichiro’s production could have been accentuated by limited playing time. Instead, the 40-year old has been called upon to play regularly, and the result has been an offensive contribution that has mirrored his recent decline.

Among those with at least 150 plate appearances, Yangervis Solarte still ranks fourth on the team with an OPS+ of 104. That’s probably the most evocative indictment of the Yankees’ 2014 offense. After all, for as much as a McCann and Beltran have disappointed, neither matches the level of surprise provided by Solarte. Without the journeyman minor leaguer’s unlikely contribution, the Yankees’ offense may have been even weaker, which is something those who defend the team’s planning seem to ignore.

The Yankees gave Alfonso Soriano over 200 plate appearances to find his swing, but the 38-year old veteran never rebounded. Like Beltran, Soriano’s recent performance did not suggest such a steep decline, but the outfielder’s advanced age should have been cause for concern. At the very least, the Yankees should not have counted on Soriano to occupy the middle of the order and serve as one of the main right handed power bats on the team.

Kelly Johnson was a man without a position for the Yankees, which probably didn’t help his performance at the plate. Still, despite the distraction of being moved around unfamiliar positions, Johnson managed to produce at a level you’d expect. Unfortunately, the Yankees were counting on much more.

Finally, the Yankees’ 2014 offensive struggles can’t be recounted without once again discussing the departure of Robinson Cano. It didn’t take a crystal ball to predict that subtracting one of the league’s best hitters from one of the franchise’s worst offenses would leave the team vulnerable to an inability to score runs. When it comes to performing to the back of the baseball card, no one has done it better than Cano, so, for those still wondering where the Yankees’ offense has gone, the best place to look first is in Seattle.

Poor decision making in the offseason, not poor play on the field has resulted in one of the weakest offenses in franchise history for a second year running. With the exception of McCann, the Yankees have no excuse for the predictable struggles of their offense. Some will suggest Beltran’s and Soriano’s underperformance also mitigate the organization’s culpability, but, it’s one thing to build an offense with aging veterans on the periphery, and quite another to pencil them into the heart of the lineup. By relying on Soriano and Beltran to occupy key positions in the batting order, the Yankees overleveraged their offense and introduced an intolerable level of risk. This was exacerbated by the financially driven decision to let Robinson Cano take his legitimate middle-of-the-order bat to Seattle. Not only did that leave the Yankees without a true number three (or four or five) hitter, but it also removed remarkable consistency from a lineup composed of uncertainty.

Yankees’ Relative Offensive Production, 1901-2014
Source: baseball-reference.com and proprietary calculations

The Yankees’ strategy to team building used to be centered on lowering performance risk and eliminating uncertainty by paying a premium for elite talent and not scrimping on depth. Over the last two years, that successful blueprint has been reversed. Instead of trying to build a team that can’t lose, the Yankees have become content with a team that can win. Although that doesn’t fit with the Yankee narrative of the recent past, one needn’t read between the lines to see the franchise has lowered its standards. All the evidence is as plain as day on the back of the team’s baseball cards.