Following a mutual off day, the Orioles rank one game ahead of the Yankees in the A.L. East. The season doesn’t end in June, but if it did, Baltimore would be listed above New York in the standings for the first time since 1997. And, if the Orioles do outlast the Yankees, it will represent the culmination of a three-year tug of war with the Bronx Bombers that has seen the two teams remain in remarkable proximity to each other.
Yankees vs. Orioles: Before (1998-2011) and After (2012- Present)
Source: baseball-reference.com and fangraphs.com
From 1998 to 2011, the Yankees and Orioles were miles apart. During that time, the Bronx Bombers won 1,369 games and made the post season in all but one year, while the O’s racked up a paltry 990 victories and never finished higher than fourth place. Since 2012, however, the Yankees have fallen back to the pack and Baltimore has done its part to close the remaining gap. Over that span, the Orioles and Yankees have posted an identical wRC+ and comparable adjusted ERA, leading to cumulative records separated by only one game. The parity between the two teams has also extended to head-to-head play as each club has won 24 of the 48 contests, including the ALDS, since 2012.
Yankees, Orioles Proximity Distribution, Since 2012
Note: Game Dates represent calendar dates plus the number of doubleheaders played by both teams (if teams played DH against each other, it is only counted once). Each whole number deficit also includes the ½ game deficit directly above (e.g., 0 = 0 + 0.5).
Source: Baseball-reference.com, proprietary calculations
Not only have the Orioles been the Yankees’ shadow in aggregate, but, over the last two-plus years, they have also remained within arm’s length on a daily basis. Since 2012, Baltimore and New York have been within three games of each other in the AL East on 77% of all game dates (calendar dates + doubleheaders), including every day of the current season. In a narrower period, since September 2012, the Yankees and Orioles have spent 285 of 312 game dates within three games. Who knew an Oriole could keep up with a Bomber?
Yankees, Orioles Running Win-Loss Comparison, 2012-Present
Source: baseball-reference.com
Now that the Orioles have finally closed the gap with the Yankees, can they pull ahead? Unless the Yankees make a few upgrades, this could be the year that Baltimore leap frogs New York in the standings. Unfortunately for the Orioles, that doesn’t necessarily mean they’ll attain supremacy in the division. With the Blue Jays currently in control, the Orioles can’t be too preoccupied by the Yankees, who themselves will have to work hard to prevent the A.L. East from going to the birds.
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