The Yankees made several questionable decisions during the offseason. Signing Brett Gardner to a contract extension wasn’t one of them.
At the time, locking the speedy outfielder up for four additional years seemed like a low risk move, but with Gardner emerging as the Yankees’ best position player, the long-term deal looks better and better each day. Although it says more about the Yankees’ overall quality than the left fielder himself, Gardner easily leads the team in both versions of WAR, and, according to baseball-reference.com, has been worth more than the Bronx Bombers’ next two productive position players combined.
Defensive and Offensive Component of Gardner’s bWAR
Note: oWAR and dWAR do not sum to total bWAR because each one takes into account the positional adjustment.
Source: baseball-reference.com
Gardner has always rated well in terms of WAR. From 2010-2013 (excluding his injury abbreviated 2012), the fleet-footed outfielder has averaged a bWAR and fWAR of 5.2 and 4.4, respectively. However, during that span, a disproportionate amount of Gardner’s value has been attributable to defense. What makes Gardner’s 2014 performance more noteworthy is the sustained improvement in his offensive game. Now, not only is the left fielder a threat on the bases, but he has become a weapon at the plate, giving the Yankees’ a leadoff hitter with the ability to see pitches, get on base, disrupt the pitcher with his speed, and hit an occasional home run.
So, what exactly is a player like Brett Gardner worth? According to fangraphs, he has already contributed value priced at $10.8 million, which is nearly twice his current salary of $5.6 million. If pro-rated over the rest of the season, Gardner’s contribution would be worth $25 million, meaning the value provided in excess of his 2014 salary would almost pay for his 2015 and 2016 seasons combined. Had he hit the open market coming off a season as strong as his first half, Gardner likely would have commanded an exponentially more lucrative multi-year contract. Instead, the Yankees will control him for the next four years (with a fifth year option), while committing only $50 million to the cause.
Brett Gardner’s Actual Salary vs. WAR-Based Valuation
Note: 2008 salary is pro-rated minimum. 2015-2018 salaries include pro-rated signing bonus of $2 million. 2019 salary is a $2 million buyout. 2014 value is the pro-rated fangraphs’ estimate. No additional value is assumed from 2015 to 2019.
Source: Cots contracts (salary) and fangraphs (estimated value)
Both versions of WAR need to be taken with a grain of salt, especially the defensive component. In Gardner’s case, however, his defensive value easily passes the eye test as well, so, if the left fielder (a position for which he penalized by WAR) can continue to be just an above average hitter with speed, the Yankees will continue to reap excess value from his presence on the team. That doesn’t make up for the loss of Robinson Cano or the failure to sign free agents like Jose Abreu, Kendrys Morales, and Nelson Cruz, but extending Gardner was money well spent for the increasingly frugal Yankees.
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