After 62 games, the Yankees are a .500 team…and lucky to be so. The Bronx Bombers have been outscored by 31 runs, which equates to an expected winning percentage of .450, or three wins fewer than the team has now. Being outscored by one-half run per game might not seem significant, but the cumulative differential of -31 represents the franchise’s eight worst deficit after 62 games.
Yankees’ Top-10 and Bottom-10 Run Differentials after 62 Games, 1901-2014
Source: Baseball-reference.com
Even at smaller sample sizes, such a low run differential rarely bodes well. With 62 games in the bank, the historical tea leaves become even more ominous. Of the 24 Yankee teams to get outscored over their first 62 games, only one recovered to make the postseason (1995), and the highest win total was only 89. A more normal path for such teams is a continued descent, and, so far, that seems to be the direction in which the 2014 Yankees are headed.
Yankees’ Running Run Differential in Select Seasons
Note: Selected seasons are the bottom-10 ranking after 62 games; see chart above.
Source: Baseball-reference.com
Despite being outscored by so many runs, the Yankees are “hanging in there”. At 31-31, the Bronx Bombers are only 2.5 games behind the Seattle Mariners for the second wild card, so a trip to the post season isn’t out of the question. However, that’s not really a bright side to what has been a rather bleak season (when Masahiro Tanaka isn’t on the mound). On the contrary, by hovering around the fringes of contention, the Yankees have given the illusion of being competitive, and, more importantly, created a smoke screen that has distracted fans from the organization’s inability or unwillingness to fill the obvious holes that exist on the roster.
Hal Steinbrenner has repeatedly stated that money would not get in the way of the Yankees fielding a “championship-caliber team”, but actions speak louder than words. In their current state, the 2014 Yankees are not championship caliber. They aren’t even strong contenders for a wild card. Will Steinbrenner open his checkbook to supply the team’s deficiencies? Or, will he continue to hide behind the smoke screen of parity? The answers to those questions have implications for more than just the current season. There’s still time for Steinbrenner to live up to his words, but, maybe the Yankees’ owner truly believes he has already fulfilled his promise? If so, that, more than the team’s lackluster play this season, should be the biggest concern for Yankee fans.
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