Fans packed into Steinbrenner Field to see Masahiro Tanaka, but other games have been less crowded. (Photo: NY Times)
With 26 non-roster players invited to camp, the Yankees’ clubhouse in Tampa has been overflowing. The same can’t be said about the crowds at Steinbrenner Field.
With four exhibition home games in the books (excluding the contest against Florida State University), the Yankees are averaging well under 9,000 fans per game. Compared to most grapefruit league teams, that’s an impressive figure, but it represents a significant lag relative to the franchise’s recent levels. Despite being buoyed by a near-sellout for last Saturday’s game, which featured the debut of Masahiro Tanaka, the Yankees’ average spring attendance would rank as its lowest since 1995, the year before the team moved from Fort Lauderdale to Tampa (click here for a chronological history of the Yankees’ spring homes). What’s more, the three non-Tanaka crowds were among the five smallest gatherings to watch the Yankees play an exhibition home game since 2002.
Yankees Historical Spring Training Attendance, 1975 to 2014
Note: Attendance includes only games played against major league teams at typical spring training facilities.
Source: Yahoo.com, ESPN.com, sportsbusinessdaily.com, springtrainingmagazine.com, and floridagrapefruitleague.com
It’s still early in the spring schedule. The Yankees have 12 home games remaining in Tampa (and two more in Panama City), and it’s likely that subsequent crowds will push the average up. That’s what happened last year. And yet, even with a rebound, the Yankees’ average home attendance last spring was 5% lower than 2012, the largest year-over-year decline in a non-labor impacted season since 1990. A similar drop in home attendance this spring would translate to approximately 8,000 fewer fans at Steinbrenner Field. Assuming an average per fan spend of $100, the financial hit would be less than $1 million, so the decline alone isn’t going to make much of a dent in the Yankees’ pocketbook. However, it could be a harbinger of more costly things to come.
Since 1976, there has been a significant correlation between the Yankees spring and regular season attendance, in terms of both average crowd size and percentage of capacity. And, sure enough, last year’s 5% decline in spring attendance presaged a 7% drop for the regular season. If the same pattern holds this year, it would have a significant impact on the bottom line. So, while some might ignore what seem like inconsequential spring training crowds, the Yankees are probably monitoring the situation closely (and, it might explain the regular season discounting that is currently being promoted).
Correlation Between Yankees’ Spring and Regular Season Capacity Rate, 1976 to 2013
Note: Attendance includes only games played against major league teams at typical spring training facilities.
Source: Yahoo.com, ESPN.com, sportsbusinessdaily.com, springtrainingmagazine.com, and floridagrapefruitleague.com
It was easier to explain away the Yankees’ declining spring attendance last year. The WBC effect was a possible culprit. So too was the economy. However, this time around, it’s harder to pin the drop off on external mitigating factors. Instead, the more likely reason for the dwindling crowds seems to be a similar decline in expectations. Is that an unreasonable reaction by the fans? Are the Yankees being held to an unfair standard? If so, it’s the team’s own fault. The organization has established a brand based on exclusivity and adopted an uncompromising mandate to win. It is upon these standards that the Yankees have built a vast economic empire, so, if the team wants to maintain that status, it can hardly turn away from them now.
It took the Yankees many years to rebuild the brand, but it won’t take long to tarnish it. Ultimately, winning is what defines the Yankees, but the expectation to win is what drives interest in the team. That’s not how the Yankees have been operating of late, but the ticket count, both during the spring and throughout the regular season, continues to serve as a reminder.
Pretty small sample size. Your title leaves me dizzy
Spring training schedules are a small sample size (which is addressed in the linked article).
Yes but your making a big deal about only 4 games. And to tie that to lower expectations is a stretch of monumental proportion unless you have some survey or other statistical data to support it. Yikes.
Actually, you are making the “big deal”. If you read more carefully, the argument above states that attendance is down significantly over 4 games, notes the likelihood of improving attendance over the final 12, but concludes that if, like last year, the final total represents a decline, it could suggest a similar situation during the regular season, based on over 30 years of historical data.
In 2013, Yanks were 4th in MLB attendance, with a sub standard Yankee team due to all those injuries. Hardly a tarnished image. Moreover, they have added 4 marque names and ST is down???? That stands to reason it’s just an outlier with no plausible explanation. Heck, I’m only 2 hours away but could care less about SP.
You have a nice set of unrelated patterns that follow the mantra that Correlation does not imply causation. Reading this article and others you wrote you make that unfortunate leap.
You have a completely different set of population data ( Tampa vs NY), SP teams of 60 players vs 25 going back to NY. Moreover, in SP the 2013 team was healthy but started dropping like flies so a 5% drop had NO direct effect on the subsequent year other than the team was a bunch of over-achievers.
Than you go on about some tarnished image? The Yankees fell in attendance (4th) because they had a mediocre team. SP had nothing to do with it.
Your p-value would be >.05
So, you’re not disputing the Yankees’ attendance was down meaningfully last year? Good. Now, if you want to dismiss that, I can’t stop you. Oh, by the way, having a mediocre team is exactly how you dilute the brand.
I’m actually surprised it wasn’t down more!!!! They lost about 263K or 3300 per game. That happens to bad teams. But that has NOTHING to do with ST.
But dilute the brand? You write that after they added 471million in payroll. In 2001-2003 their attendance as a PCT was 74.1,78.6,and 77.9 respectively. In 2013 it was 80.5. They are 1 on Forbes. I agree that if they languished for the next 5 years, it would certainly hurt but why would they? 1 year means nothing, just an outlier or Hal finally woke up!!!
What I find more compelling is they have lost attendance since 2010. Is that because of the $ for those box seats? At least I can see those empty seats with my own eyes.
Saying the Yankees spent $471 million is misleading because all the money that came off the books (Rivera, Arod, Cano, Pettitte, etc). The real issue is how much are they spending relative to the past, and the answer is much less (see first link below).
The link to ST may be a coincidence, or maybe not. Expectations drive interest, so if fans are not as optimistic, it is reasonable to expect lower attendance in both the exhibition and regular season. Since 1976, there has been a meaningful correlation between the two. That doesn’t guarantee causation, but I’d like to see what data you have that allows you to rule out a connection?
As for the decline (see second, third link below) since 2010, I believe the secondary market, more than high primary prices, is a culprit.
Ultimately, the way the Yankees will be able to maintain their high attendance and ratings is to continue to have a multitude of stars who breed the certainty of winning (not the chance of winning). That’s what props up the brand and makes watching the Yankees a status event, not just a sporting event.
http://www.captainsblog.info/2014/01/20/is-tanaka-part-of-the-yankees-189-million-bluff-masahiro-tanaka-hal-steinbrenner-japan-payroll-brian-cashman/21209/
http://www.captainsblog.info/2011/04/21/has-baseball-stubbed-its-toe-in-the-secondary-market/6589/
http://www.captainsblog.info/2013/02/11/yankees-agreement-with-ticketmaster-a-plus-for-season-plan-holders-but-buyers-beware/19198/
Your still clinging to the ST/Regular season correlation. What were the NY ST TV ratings? That would be a better predictor. Not Tampa residents and snow birds.
They blew past the 189M and plugged some major holes and now a full season of jeter/Tex/Sori (??).
I bet attendance ticks back up as well.
I don’t know if I am clinging to it, but am still waiting for your evidence that the correlation is meaningless. I do agree that ST ratings would be another barometer to examine, but that doesn’t render attendance irrelevant.
The Yankees HAVE NOT blown past $189mn (see the Project $189 tab above). Also, not sure if you checked out the link in the previous comment, but team spending in both real dollars and as a percentage of revenue are down significantly.
Maybe Tanaka and Jeter can help the Yankees boost attendance, but I would expect another decline unless the team significantly outperforms expectations.
With all due respect, by definition all correlations are meaningless if you try to paint them as cause and effect which you have done. No evidence required.
There is a good reason why the media aren’t asking your questions. They are not interested in spending:revenue ratios. The Yanks keep getting substantially richer so naturally their spending per revenue will never get higher.
The 2013 Rays set a ST record and then lost 50K in the regular season. That’s why it makes no sense at all to use ST attendance.
Most teams wish they had the Yankees problems.
Sayonara
I’ll let the data and the explanations above speak for themselves and wait for you to come back with a more substantive argument. Otherwise, your disagreement is duly noted.
Your kidding about the substantive argument right. It took me 2 minutes to show the Rays increase ST attendance/decrease season attendance and their in the SAME city. Give a man his due already!!!!
Richard, nowhere in the article does it imply that ST is the causation- merely an interesting potential indicator.
During ST it is enjoyable to read about ST. The author has also put together articles on opening day, Veterans Day, etc- why not post 10 times that the Yankee record on Veterans Day is insignificant? It goes without saying.
Actually J, he goes beyond Potential Indicator
“The link to ST may be a coincidence, or maybe not. Expectations drive interest, so if fans are not as optimistic, it is reasonable to expect lower attendance in both the exhibition and regular season. Since 1976, there has been a meaningful correlation between the two. That doesn’t guarantee causation, but I’d like to see what data you have that allows you to rule out a connection?
Moreover, I appreciate the author taking the time to respond (6) to my banter. Can’t wait to read the other articles.
How do you explain other teams with increased Spring Training attendance and lower Regular season and vice versa? Seems to me that one has nothing to do with the other. I see so many differences – city, weather, even the teams are vastly different.
I would expect the Yanks to drop in 2013 Regular attendance because of the team they had to field. However, in Spring Training that year it was not known yet that the team would suffer all those injuries.
I’m just babbling.
Two points:
1) I have not run a 30-year correlation analysis to see if there is a statistical link between ST and regular season attendance for the 29 other teams. A general link may exist. Or, it may not. The TB example in the comment above did not provide data or methodology.
2) It doesn’t matter if there is a link for the other 29 teams because this post wasn’t about a general correlation between ST and regular season attendance. It was about a possible link for the Yankees only, and what it might indicate about the state of the team’s brand.
Also, remember that most tickets are sold as part of season sales. Last year, the Yankees’ decline in attendance was attributable to a drop off in the season ticket base, not simply individual ticket sales. In other words, attendance was down long before the Yankees were ravaged by injuries.
The premise is simple. For the last decade, the Yankees brand has been so strong that they’ve enjoyed near sellouts in every ST and regular season game. However, last year…and now this year…crowds have lagged. Has the brand been tarnished by the team’s reluctance to spend excessively to guarantee the best team possible? I think there has been some slippage, and it will continue if the Yankees favor cost reduction over revenue maximization.
” I have not run a 30-year correlation analysis to see if there is a statistical link between ST and regular season attendance for the 29 other teams. A general link may exist. Or, it may not. The TB example in the comment above did not provide data or methodology.”
Using both of your references above the Sports Daily and the Fl GF league ST differ by nearly 500 Rays fan per game. Since the FLGF is the Official Source, the Rays had a significant increase which does translate to the Regular season.
That correlates since both ST and regular season is at least in the same state!!!!
So you have the data. Methodology is reading.
If you have the data, provide it. It’s pretty simple. Also, are you using capacity rates? Let’s see what you have. OK fine, I’ll do it for you.
R2 for the Rays ST/Reg season attendance is 0.48 since 2005. However, since 2009, when the Rays moved to a new facility in Port Charlotte (did you take that into account?), R2 is 0.57, which is a little higher than the Yankees R2 from 1976 to 2013. Once again, that indicates a meaningful (not small…not large)correlation that may or may not imply some causation.
Of course, statistics aside, the amusing irony is you’re trying to make a correlation between the Rays and the Yankees.
Thanks for the stats update. Isn’t hard to do proper stats when both your ref’s use different numbers? I guess you pick the one you like most.
You bring up some excellent points but ST/Reg season comparisons are Meaningless. Moreover, It could be any of the grapefruit teams. The bigger point was the Rays ST numbers were higher 2012 to 2013 and the Reg season lower.
Isn’t that what we were discussing?
I’m so used to reading clinical, double blind, placebo controlled trials, it’s painful when authors string together a few numbers and then call it a meaningful correlation. But I actually think you believe its Real!!
I’d love to read other articles from others who have come up with your meaningful analysis. That would be truly amusing.
The Rays 2013 ST was DOWN from 2012. If you can’t even get that right, there’s no point continuing, especially when it seems like you either do not understand what is written above or are simply intent on making baseless inferences.
Thank goodness the last 2 home games we had 10,800 and 11,000. The brand is back. Crank up those season ticket sales – full speed ahead.
In my 50 years of following this team CLOSELY, you are the first I’ve read to make some of these Correlations.
The Brand can rest easy.
Keep up the good work.
Those were weekend games. The analysis above considers all games.
Keep trying.
Also, if you’ve been watching games for 50 years, then you must have noticed what happened to the Yankees brand during the mid-60s to mid-70s as well as the late-80s/early-90s.
So now Friday is a weekend? They’ve played 3 Home games since your 4 day Meaningful correlation and yes one was a Tues (8700 fans), one was a FRIDAY night and cold!!!!! and 1 was a weekend day.
You think that’s analysis??? Seriously?
Mid 60’s/70’s. Let me guess. Their ST numbers were low!!!
Let me dust off my Al Downing/Bobby Richardson photos. It was a whole different world with CBS back then and pre-free agency. Once again your point escapes me.
Who knows what the brand would have been without George.
http://www.flgov.com/gov-scott-seven-spring-training-teams-set-attendance-records-for-2013-2/
You opined: “The Rays 2013 ST was DOWN from 2012. If you can’t even get that right, there’s no point continuing, especially when it seems like you either do not understand what is written above or are simply intent on making baseless inferences.
If you would get your head out of the Sports Daily and use the Gov Scott official figures, you would see that the Rays average attendance went from 5,495 in 2012 to 5,895 in 2013; another record!!!
Your right, I just don’t understand why you use the WRONG numbers. Maybe Gov Scott fails to comprehend as well.
Try reading the press release and the post above again and see if you can figure out where you’ve gone wrong. I’d tell you, but holding your hand hasn’t helped your reading comprehension. Good luck.
Please enlighten me again on my reading comp. But I will hold firm that a cold Friday evening is still a weekday!!!!
Enjoy the season. See you at the ballpark.
If you’re arguing that Friday night is not a weekend maybe youve never been to the movies, a concert, a bar, restaurant, or any other social event. You’re just looking for things to complain about. I don’t know why the author even answers you. Maybe you’re a bored teenager picking fights online and get your kicks when famous bloggers respond.
the Yanks played on that Friday at 1pm, so its a weekday.
What famous blogger are you referring to?
In the US the official work week is M-F ( if you have a job or not on Flex time). Since we were writing about baseball, a spring training game at 1pm would be part of the work week.
This was an exercise in common sense. I only engaged this famous blogger when he offered no leeway to my basic argument.
If you don’t know what the issue even is, why step in ?
Forgive me for also butting in with some facts, but Friday’s game was at night. BCBC!
You are right but it’s still a week day.
Thanks for coming to my aid, Jenn. Are you a Yankee fan? Do you work a flex week? Btw, lol, Jenn.