Clayton Kershaw has 215 million more reasons to smile.
Move over Alex Rodriguez. Clayton Kershaw is now the highest paid player in baseball history. At an average annual value of $30.7 million, the lefty’s seven year, $215 million contract extension (with an opt out after year five) has trumped the annuitized value of Rodriguez’ current deal. Although this probably isn’t the best week to be mentioned in the same breath as Arod, Kershaw has no reason to be ashamed. Unlike some other mind boggling contracts, his record setting salary is actually easy to justify.
Top-10 MLB Contract AAVs
Note: Roger Clemens’ $28 million salary was paid on a pro rated basis and amounted to $17.4 million.
Source: Cots Contracts
Kershaw’s contract has already been greeted by a lot of hyperbole. His $30.7 million salary has been expressed in everything from pitches to heart beats, but lost in the clever illustrations is a fact that has no hint of exaggeration: the Dodgers’ lefty is not only the best pitcher in baseball, but at his age, there haven’t been many better throughout history.
At age 25, Kershaw isn’t much older than many highly touted prospects, but his accomplishments dwarf those of most highly respected veterans. Since 2009, his ERA+ of 155 is easily the best in the game, outdistancing fellow greats like Justin Verlander, Felix Hernandez and Cliff Lee. However, what makes Kershaw’s performance truly remarkable is his youth. In order to find a pitcher demonstrably more successful so early in his career, you have to hark back to the dead ball era and examine the exploits of Walter Johnson.
Best Pitchers Through Age 25, 1901-2013, Ranked by ERA+
Note: Based on a minimum of 600 innings.
Source: Baseball-reference.com
Are the Dodgers really signing the next Big Train? The answer to that question could rely on Kershaw’s health. The risk of injury is inherent to pitching, but Kershaw’s youth and clean bill of health are, at the very least, positive signs. However, many will argue that a pitcher’s true age is measured in innings, not years, in which case, history suggests a mixed bag of optimism and caution. Since 1969, 31 pitchers have thrown 1,000 innings before their age-26 season, with Kershaw and two other actives, Hernandez and Matt Cain, included among them. From that group, 14 threw more than 1,000 innings over their next seven seasons, but only four posted an ERA+ of 120 or greater during that span (CC Sabathia, Roger Clemens, Greg Maddux and Dave Stieb). The other half of the non-actives include pitchers who either suffered injuries or declining performance, with only Bret Saberhagen and Alex Fernandez managing above average performance in more than 250 total innings.
Innings Thrown by Pitchers Before and After Age 26, 1969-2013
Note: Based on a minimum of 1,000 innings before age 25.
Source: Baseball-reference.com
What happens if Kershaw doesn’t stay healthy or isn’t able to maintain his dominance? Does that mean the Dodgers blundered by signing the two-time Cy Young to such a large contract? If you value fairness, the answer is absolutely not. According to fangraphs’ WAR-based valuations, Kershaw’s performance has been worth about $109 million more than what the Dodgers have paid him to date. Even if Kershaw only lives up to half the value of his new deal, the Dodgers would still break even. On that basis alone, the Dodgers should have little reason to regret paying fair market value to a homegrown player who has already contributed so greatly to the franchise.
Kershaw’s Cumulative WAR-Based Valuation vs. Salary
Note: Future years assume $30.7 million pro rated over full seven year term.
Source: Cots Contracts and fangraphs.com
There’s one more justification for Kershaw’s mega-contract. It’s the same reason why many lucrative deals are “worth it”, even if they extend the bounds of what most people can comprehend. Major League Baseball, and the Dodgers in particular, are in the midst of a golden age, literally. Driven by the games unprecedented popularity and increasing attractiveness as a media asset, revenues and franchise values continue to increase exponentially, so it should come as no surprise that much of that wealth has trickled down to the players. After all, if the Dodgers can make over $300 million per year on a TV deal, Kershaw is surely worth $30 million. Even though both sums may seem outlandish to the average person, the economics of the game support them.
So, to sum things up, is Kershaw worth all that money? In a heartbeat…even ones that cost seventy-five cents a piece.
Leave a Reply