The Captain's Blog

If the World Series is on national television, but “no one” watches, does Tim McCarver make a sound?

In a very well presented video essay, ESPN’s Keith Olbermann became the latest to lament the gradual decline in World Series ratings that has occurred over the last four decades. In particular, Olbermann points to the nearly 60 share (percentage of television sets in use) earned by the 1971 Fall Classic and concludes “something has gone very, very wrong since then”. And, how could one argue with such an assessment? With World Series viewership continuing to trend down, it sure seems as if baseball has taken an irrevocable turn for the worse in popularity. Or has it?

Nielsen Ratings Share for the World Series, 1968-2012

Note: HH rating is percentage of all Americans who live in a household with a television. Share is the percentage of all television sets in use.
Source: http://tvbythenumbers.zap2it.com/

The most disappointing thing about Olbermann’s essay is, despite nailing many of the underlying reasons for why World Series ratings have declined (e.g., baseball viewership is more regional and programming competition is more robust), he still comes to the same erroneous conclusions of others who have examined the issue with less sophistication.

Olbermann’s biggest swing and miss was his assertion that “everything TV has touched has exploded in the last few decades”. Although the media industry has certainly grown exponentially, the broadcast share of the pie has decreased. In addition to competition from cable TV, digital platforms and even social media have increasingly gnawed away at the dominance once enjoyed by the major national networks. As a result, the ratings of just about every television event, except the Super Bowl, have taken a general path downward.

Nielsen Household Ratings for Major Television Events, 1968-2013

Note: HH rating is percentage of all Americans who live in a household with a television. Share is the percentage of all television sets in use.
Source: tvbythenumber, nielsen.com, wikipedia, various newspaper accounts

As you can see, TV has not had the Midas touch over the past few decades. The NBA Finals, Oscars, and Grammys are other major events that have experienced a declining ratings trajectory. Of course, it’s possible that “things have gone very wrong” with these events as well, but that wouldn’t explain why fewer eyeballs are watching each season’s number one show. In 1971, when the Pirates and Orioles pulled in the whopping number of viewers referenced by Olbermann, All in the Family led all television shows with a household rating of 34. Last season, NCIS was the top show, but with a rating of only 12.3, a 64% decline, which is in line with a comparison of the World Series ratings from those two years.

If all that glitters doesn’t lead to TV gold, why has the Super Bowl been so successful? This is the question that causes most baseball fans to take leave of their senses. As a lot, baseball fans are consumed by history and statistics. The idea of their beloved sport as the national pastime is sacrosanct. Anything that threatens this status, like the overwhelming national ratings supremacy of the NFL, causes baseball fans to spend sleepless nights wondering where the game went so very wrong. This is what causes baseball lovers like Olbermann to call declining World Series ratings “the dirtiest little secret in all of sports”.

Speaking of dirty little secrets, the NFL has more than its share, namely its close association with gambling (although its long ignored head injury epidemic is coming to the fore). From required injury reporting to aggressive fantasy marketing to tolerance of point spreads in the programming of network partners, the NFL has successfully, and profitably, aligned itself with the country’s fondness for placing a wager. Not only do most estimates place fantasy football participation at nearly twice the level of fantasy baseball, but a Pew survey on gambling in sports (published May 23, 2006) found that 23% of respondents bet weekly on pro football, while 42% placed at least one bet per month. Those numbers are astounding. As for baseball, the same survey found that only 5% of respondents bet weekly on baseball, with only 14% betting at least once per month. Not ironically, the only other sport that compared to pro football was college football. In other words, football, with its flagship Super Bowl, may be the nation’s vice, but that doesn’t make it the national pastime.

MLB Historical Average Attendance, 1901 to 2013

Source: baseball- reference.com

Not only is it foolish to compare MLB and NFL national ratings, but it’s also naïve to judge baseball’s current popularity based on past World Series viewership. To illustrate, let’s take a closer look at 1971. That year, when 39 million tuned into the first night game in World Series history, an average of only 15,000 fans made it out to the park for each regular season game. In 2013, however, twice as many fans passed through the turnstiles on a daily basis. Are there mitigating factors that would explain this precipitous rise? Undoubtedly, but if the World Series rating decline is going to be taken at face value, baseball’s attendance boom should at least be considered with equal breath.

Baseball’s robust attendance is just one indicator of the game’s increasing popularity and fiscal strength. The sport’s local television ratings and digital footprint are all evidence of baseball’s impressive hold on the public. No wonder a recent Bloomberg study valued over one-third of all franchises at $1 billion or greater, upping the ante of a similar report  by Forbes (and, interestingly, some teams have publicly stated even Bloomberg’s numbers are on the low side). Clearly, and contrary to the conclusions based on World Series ratings, something has gone very, very right for major league baseball.

MLB Financial Snapshot, 2003 to 2012

Note: Revenue for each team is net of stadium debt and revenue sharing.
Source: Forbes.com

The key to MLB’s financial success has been access. Not only can baseball fans watch every single game played by every team, but they can also interact daily on social media and immerse themselves in the variety of media coverage that overwhelms the season. By the time the World Series comes around, many baseball fans are exhausted from gorging themselves on the game. Because of this gluttony, local TV ratings, attendance, digital subscriptions, and merchandizing are all on the rise. One of the side effects, however, is a decline in World Series ratings. Does that make baseball fans more myopic? Perhaps, but who cares? Although the World Series as a television event has lost some stature, baseball as a sport is bigger and better than ever.

Top-10 Rated World Series Games

*First World Series night game. **Played in the day time.
Note: HH rating is percentage of all Americans who live in a household with a television. Share is the percentage of all television sets in use.
Source: http://i.mktw.net

It’s fun to reminisce about the “golden era”, when children listed to the Fall Classic on a transistor radio and adults gathered around the neighborhood television store to watch, but like most trips down memory lane, when you look past the nostalgia, it often turns out that the good old days weren’t so great after all. And, if you’re still not convinced, consider this: would a single major league owner opt for the economics of 1971? Would baseball fans give up their daily access for a handful of national broadcasts? To both questions, the answer seems to be “Game Over”.