There aren’t many compelling story lines heading into the 2013 World Series. Despite an attempt to create forced narratives (the St. Louis Cardinals do everything the “right way”, while the Boston Red Sox’ have an unbridled love for playing), the upcoming Fall Classic seems to be without a hook. Unless, of course, you happen to believe the World Series should be a showcase for baseball’s best teams.
Who’s the Best: Breakdown of A.L. and N.L. Teams by Various Measures of Success, 1901 to 2013
Note: Non World Series years included for all but the pennant winners chart. Color shading indicates different cities in which a franchise played, with the most recent appearing at the top of the bar column.
Source: baseball-reference.com
Before the advent of the division era, the team with the best record in each league automatically advanced to the World Series. That all changed in 1969, however, when the league championship round was introduced. Over the next 25 years, just over half of the National League’s representatives in the Fall Classic owned the best record, while approximately 60% of their American League counterparts claimed the top mark. When the wild card was introduced, those rates shrunk even further. Since 1995, the team with the best record in the senior circuit has advanced to the World Series on only five occasions (26%), versus eight from the junior circuit (42%).
Percentage of World Series Representatives with League’s Best Win-Loss Record
Source: baseball-reference.com
By winning the pennant after compiling their league’s best record, the Red Sox and Cardinals bucked the prevailing trend. That they both did it in the same season is somewhat historic. Since the advent of divisional play in 1969, only 11 other Fall Classic have featured a showdown of top teams, and only two have taken place during the wild card era, the most recent occurring when the Yankees faced the Braves in 1999.
World Series Featuring Each League’s Best Team by W-L%, Since 1969
Note: Shaded teams also had the best Pythagorean record.
Source: baseball-reference.com
In addition to boasting the best record in their league, the Cardinals and Red Sox also compiled the largest run differential. Since 1995, expected winning percentage has been a better bellwether for the World Series, but still, fewer than half claiming the distinction wound up winning the pennant in each league (32% in the NL and 47% in the AL). As a result, the two top “Pythagorean teams” have only met 10 times during the division era (23%), although such a pairing has marked the Red Sox last three trips to the Fall Classic.
World Series Featuring Each League’s Best Team by Pythagorean Record, Since 1969
Note: Shaded teams also had the best win-loss record.
Source: baseball-reference.com
What makes this year’s World Series particularly unique in the division era is it features the teams with the best real and expected winning percentages in each league. When was the last time that happened in the wild card era? Never. In fact, since 1969, only two World Series (1971 and 1978) have been a showdown between teams with a dual claim to being their league’s best.
Percentage of World Series Representatives with League’s Best Pythagorean Record
Source: baseball-reference.com
Percentage of World Series Representatives with League’s Best Pythagorean and Win-Loss Record
Note: Rate is percentage of teams with best real and expected winning percentage that advanced to World Series (not those teams divided by all seasons).
Source: baseball-reference.com
The Red Sox and Cardinals have been two of the most successful franchises over the last 10 years, with each team trailing only the New York Yankees in terms of regular season wins and post season appearances. In sports, familiarity often breeds contempt, so you can’t blame those outside of Boston and St. Louis for being less than excited about the matchup. However, instead of lamenting the lack of narratives, or trying to invent some, the sport should be willing to embrace what promises to be a very competitive World Series. Although it would be more fun to root for an underdog, sometimes even the best teams deserves a little love.
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