Although strikeouts in Major League Baseball have declined slightly this season, the overall trajectory in the last decade has been a precipitous rise. Meanwhile, walks have been gradually dwindling over the same span. This divergence has played a role in the overall decline in offense, however, some players have been able to buck these prevailing trends.
Major League Baseball BB and K Rates, 2004 to 2013
Note: Data is as of the August 5, 2013.
Source: fangraphs.com
In 2011, David Ortiz enjoyed a historic drop in his strikeout rate, an accomplishment made even more extraordinary by the overall environment in which it was achieved as well as his ability to maintain that level over the two seasons that have followed. Although not to the extreme of Ortiz, an increasing number of hitters have been able to reign in their strike out total this season. Among the 95 players with a qualified season both in 2012 and so far in 2013, only 39 have struck out more often, while 54 have gone down on strikes less frequently.
Top-10 2013 Strikeout Rate Declines and Increases
Note: Data is as of the August 5, 2013. Includes only a comparison of consecutive qualified seasons.
Source: fangraphs.com
Norichika Aoki leads the way among those curbing their strikeouts. His 43% decline in strikeouts per plate appearance ranks first among all qualified hitters this season, but because he is working off a smaller base, the corresponding four percentage point drop in the real rate doesn’t register in the top-10. In terms of actual change in strikeout rate, Jason Heyward ranks first, having shaved 6.3 percentage points off his ratio.
While most qualified hitters have lowered their strikeout rates, a sizable minority continue to rack up an increasing number. Heading that brigade is Prince Fielder, whose strikeouts per plate appearance have increased by 42%. Carlos Gonzalez isn’t far behind with a 36% increase, which, though third on a ratio basis, has resulted in the largest percentage point increase.
Top-10 Historical Strikeout Rate Declines/Increase, 1901-2012
Note: Data is as of the August 5, 2013. Includes only a comparison of consecutive qualified seasons.
Source: fangraphs.com
The individual strike rate changes from this year do not register on a historical basis. The largest year-over-year decline in consecutive qualified seasons is 70%, turned in by Mickey Cochrane in 1929 and Joe Sewell in 1925. Using percentage points as the barometer, Mark Belanger’s 1969 season stands atop the heap, followed closely by Ortiz’ aforementioned decline in 2011. Interestingly, Cochrane also holds the mark for the largest strikeout increase. In 1928, the Hall of Fame catcher’s seven strikeouts represented a 219% increase from the year before, and provided the basis for his record setting decline in 1929.
Top-10 2013 Walk Rate Declines and Increases
Note: Data is as of the August 5, 2013. Includes only a comparison of consecutive qualified seasons.
Source: fangraphs.com
Michael Young has never been known as patient hitter, but in 2013, he has had a more discerning eye. The Phillies’ third baseman has walked 70.6% more often than last year, giving him the highest per plate appearance increase this season. In terms of percentage point increase, however, Billy Butler’s 5% bump leads the way. The trailer, on that basis, is Carlos Beltran, whose 5% percentage point drop has cut his walk rate in half, giving him the distinction of also having the largest year-over-year rate decline. Overall, 51 of the 95 hitters with qualified seasons in 2012 and 2013 have seen their walk rates drop.
Top-10 Historical Walk Rate Declines/Increase, 1901-2012 
Note: Data is as of the August 5, 2013. Includes only a comparison of consecutive qualified seasons.
Source: fangraphs.com
Although Young’s increased walk rate is impressive, it pales in comparison to the all-time improvement turned in by Al Kaline in 1955. That season, the 20-year old Tigers’ right fielder improved his BB/PA by 192%, the largest yearly increase between two qualified seasons. Despite the large jump, Kaline’s improved ratio only led to 7.9 percentage point increase in his walk rate, far behind Barry Bond’s all-time spike of 10.7% in 2004. That season, Bonds saw an already inflated walk rate of 26.9% jump all the way to 37.6%, the highest rate among all qualified seasons since 1901.
Crossovers: Hitters with Positive Walk and Strikeout Rate Changes, 2012 vs. 2013
Note: Data is as of the August 5, 2013. Includes only hitters with a K-rate decline greater than 10% and a BB-rate increase of greater than 10% in consecutive qualified seasons
Source: fangraphs.com
Finally, there is a select group of 24 hitters who have posted both a declining strikeout rate and improving walk rate so far this season. Among these crossovers, only eight batters have had a beneficial change in their walk and strikeout rates of 10% or greater. Not surprisingly, six of the eight have had offensive seasons that compare favorably to the league average. Who knows, in a pitching dominant era, those hitters who can improve their on-base skills while lowering their strikeouts could become the next great market efficiency.
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