Strikeouts are up in 2013, and there are many theories why. Patient hitters, hard throwing pitchers, and eager umpires have all been cited as accomplices, and there is enough circumstantial evidence to cast suspicion on the lot.
All strikeouts are not created equal. Some result from a called third strike, while others occur when a hitter goes down swinging. Although the outcome is the same, the balance between the two might offer a clue as to which suspects are most responsible for the recent surge.
2013 Strikeout Breakdown
Note: Data through May 21, 2013 encompassing 51,051 plate appearances.
Source: Data manually compiled from baseball-reference.com
Entering play today, there have been 10,199 strikeouts, good for one in every five plate appearances this season. Of that total, just over 75% have been the result of a swinging strike, while approximately 24% were called by the umpire (the other 1% are bunt-related events). Unfortunately, strikeout classification data are not readily available, so a full historical comparison isn’t an easy task. However, by comparing this year’s two-month results to a similar period in 2003, when the strikeout rate was a prior decade low 16.4%, we can get a sense about which type of strikeout has fueled the overall trend.
2003 Strikeout Breakdown
Note: Data through May 20, 2003 encompassing 51,884 plate appearances.
Source: Data manually compiled from baseball-reference.com
Over the same period in 2003, 27% of strike outs resulted from a called third strike, or 3% more than this season. Is this increase significant? The best way to determine that is by looking at the different rates on a per plate appearance basis.
2003 vs. 2013 Strikeout Rates
Note: 2003 data encompasses 51,884 plate appearances; 2013 data encompasses 51,051 plate appearances.
Source: Data manual compiled from baseball-reference.com
As illustrated above, almost all of the increase in strikeouts when comparing 2003 to 2013 has resulted from hitters swinging and missing. That doesn’t mean hitters aren’t putting themselves into poor counts by taking hittable pitches, or umpires aren’t calling more strikes earlier in the at bat, but when it comes to the final outcome, the inability of batters to make contact is why strikeouts are up significantly. Score one for the pitchers.
A two-month snap shot is hardly conclusive, and it’s likely that several other factors are contributing to the trend, but, at least in 2013, the increase in strikeouts seems to more attributable to what pitchers are doing as opposed to what hitters are not. It will be interesting to see if this balance changes as the year progresses, but if not, there is a silver lining. More cool breezes in the summer are never a bad thing.
Top-10 Hitter Strikeout Rates: Looking and Swinging
Note: Includes hitters with at least 15 strikeouts. Bunt-related strikeouts excluded from rates.
Source: Data manual compiled from baseball-reference.com
Top-10 Pitcher Strikeout Rates: Looking and Swinging
Note: Includes pitchers with at least 25 strikeouts. Bunt-related strikeouts excluded from rates.
Source: Data manual compiled from baseball-reference.com
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