In the wake of the Yankees’ ALCS washout, the Bronx Bombers have been treated like a complete failure. During last night’s NLCS telecast on FOX, Joe Buck and Tim McCarver even compared the end of the Yankees’ 2012 season to the Boston Red Sox’ epic collapse in 2011. Judging by the furor, you’d never guess the Yankees had the best record in the American League.
Hopefully, Brian Cashman’s cell phone plan has unlimited minutes. (Photo: Getty Images)
The Yankees had a historically poor offensive postseason. There’s no way around that fact. However, that doesn’t mean the team should overreact. By the same token, it would be naïve to attribute the offense’s poor showing in October to bad luck and poor timing. Even though the Bronx Bombers ranked among the A.L. leaders in most offensive categories, the lineup was not without its flaws, many of which were exposed during the postseason. So, as Brian Cashman looks back at his team, chances are he’ll come to the conclusion that the status quo can not be maintained.
Even if the Yankees won the World Series, the team’s extensive list of free agents all but ensured significant turnover. Russell Martin, Nick Swisher, Hiroki Kuroda, Raul Ibanez, and Rafael Soriano (who seems certain to exercise his opt out clause) are all meaningful contributors who are likely to either test the market or seek a raise, which could cloud their future in the Bronx. Also complicating matters are the injuries to Derek Jeter and Mariano Rivera. Neither player is guaranteed to start the season on time, and, considering their ages, a full recovery is impossible to predict. Throw in Andy Pettitte’s annual retirement watch, Curtis Granderson’s $15 million team option, the potential for trade talks involving Alex Rodriguez, and Cashman’s scary insistence that CC Sabathia have his left elbow examined, and, right now, very little seems certain about next year.
Last winter, Brian Cashman preached “pitching, pitching, and more pitching”, but this time around, he would probably sign up to enter 2013 with the exact same pitching staff as last season. Even without Rivera and Michael Pineda, the Yankees had a rotation and bullpen capable of success in both the regular and post season, so there really isn’t a need to make major changes. Of course, keeping everyone in the fold will likely cost more money. The most likely casualty figures to be Soriano, who could command a long-term lucrative contract coming off an outstanding season as a closer. Would the Yankees be willing to sign him to another big money contract? If not, team will enter next season with David Robertson as the only established and healthy member of the bullpen.
Padres’ 3B Chase Headley would be an ideal centerpiece of Yankees’ overhaul (Photo: AP).
If Kuroda and Pettitte return to the fold, and Sabathia’s check-up comes back clean, the Yankees would likely be content to go with a similar rotation augmented by the eventual return of Pineda. Should those plans go awry, the Yankees would likely turn to either the free agent market (Zack Greinke, Edwin Jackson, or Francisco Liriano?), or explore a trade (perhaps the Phillies are still looking to dump the contract of old friend Cliff Lee?). Considering the work that needs to be done on the offense, Cashman is probably hoping to have his pitching staff squared away as soon as possible, but the best laid plans usually don’t make it past November.
The Yankees had one of the best offenses in the American League, but relative run production was down versus prior seasons. Throughout the year, the lineup was plagued by vulnerability to platoon splits as well as a lack of athleticism that manifested on the base paths. Too much attention was paid to the team’s occasional struggles with runners in scoring position and dependence on the long ball, but in reality, what dampened the Yankees offense was the opposing manager’s ability to match-up against individual hitters as well as the lineups inability to manufacture runs, not via small ball, but on actual hits with runners in scoring position.
Yankees’ Historical Run Production vs. A.L. Average
Source: baseball-reference.com
The ideal way to supply the Yankees’ current deficiency would be to obtain players who are not only younger and more athletic, but can also field their position (or positions) and hit both righties and lefties. Within this conceptual framework, there are some easy targets who have occasionally been the subject of trade rumors during the year. Diamondbacks’ right fielder Justin Upton, Padres’ third baseman Chase Headley, and Braves’ utility many Martin Prado are three players who probably already top the Yankees’ wish list, but, several other teams likely feel the same way. Adding one player from this list will be hard enough, but if the team can somehow pry two away, it would allow Cashman to go in a completely different direction. In particular, Headley’s and Prado’s ability to play the outfield as well as the infield would give the Yankees increased flexibility. Combining one of the two, or another like them, with Upton, for example, would not only allow the Yankees to let Swisher walk, but also give the team more choices regarding Granderson, including declining his $15 million option or picking it up with the intention of trading him.
David Ortiz just might be the biggest, scariest, left handed monster of them all (Photo: Getty Images).
Should the Yankees’ be unable to make a trade to address their long-term needs, there are a few short-term options in the free agent market. David Ortiz, for example, would provide a significant boost to the Yankees’ lineup in the regular season, while also providing a big presence in October. Would Ortiz’ clutch reputation take some pressure off the embattled the Yankees’ lineup, especially in the postseason, should they make it? It’s impossible to say, but his big bat in the middle definitely wouldn’t hurt. Besides, if Cashman really does have a fetish for “big hairy lefty monsters”, he couldn’t do better than Ortiz.
Ortiz would “clog up” the DH role, especially if Arod remains with the team, but the days of each player staying healthy for an entire season are in the past. The Yankees could easily accommodate both players for about 100-120 games next season, an arrangement that would be even more palatable if the team also acquired a more well-rounded third baseman than Chavez (Headley fits into this plan as well).
In addition to Ortiz, the Yankees could also kick the tires on players like Cody Ross, Torii Hunter, Shane Victorino, or even the embattled Melky Cabrera, but none from this group represents much of an upgrade, if any at all, over the team’s current roster. In fact, if the team were to sign Ortiz and make no other significant trade, it would probably make sense to re-sign Swisher and let Granderson play out his last season in pinstripes. The only other conceivable alternative from the free agent market would be the blockbuster signing of Josh Hamilton, but considering the money and risk involved, the Yankees are unlikely to even test the waters on the former MVP.
Improving the everyday lineup is a priority, but upgrading the bench shouldn’t be overlooked. Regardless of whether Martin returns, the Yankees need a more viable back-up catcher than Chris Stewart. Raul Ibanez’ postseason heroics all but assured he’ll be invited back, but the Yankees would be foolish to do so with the mindset that he is a capable fourth outfielder. Similarly, the Yankees shouldn’t be lulled into thinking Eduardo Nunez is a suitable defensive infielder based on a couple of strong postseason games. With the timing of Jeter’s return uncertain, acquiring a capable backup short stop will be particularly important this off season.
There are so many potential moving pieces on the Yankees roster, it’s almost impossible to draw up a blueprint on the first day of the off season. At this point, just about everything should be on the table. As the winter progresses, individual moves will come into focus, but in the meantime, it seems clear that this off season will be one of the most transformative in recent franchise history. In the past, Cashman has been skilled at remaking the team, but he has always had an open wallet. Will Hal Steinbrenner be willing to back away from his profit-driven pursuit of a $189 million payroll? The answer to that question, more than availability of players, could determine what kind of team the Yankees field in 2013.
Any chance of doing nothing, not signing expensive, older players, keeping the farm together, getting some better draft picks and trying again in a few years?
It’s amazing that in a league of 30+ teams Yankee fans are so spoiled to think they will acquire not just one but several of the top free agents. Sounds like the days of a Sabathia-Texera offseason are long gone. What will happen now that the Yankees have to play by similar salary rules to everyone else (or at least have a salary only 4 times as high as the others.). Welcome back 1980s Yankees baseball, welcome back Steve Balboni.
I hated W Boggs, then I had to root for him.
I hated R Clemens, then I had to root for him (and listen to Susan Waldman have a stroke live in air)
I hated J Damon, then I had to root for him (and pluck his hair outve my TV remote.)
I hated D Lowe, then I had to root for him.
Is there anyone else who still has a sense of loyalty or are we emotionless robots who blindly cheer for whatever is in front of us. Say no to Papi in Pinstrapies!
Rotation:
1) CC Sabathia
2) Hiroki Kuroda
3) Andy Petitte
4) Michael Pineda
5) David Phelps
Bullpen:
LR) Paul Malhom
MR) Joba Chamberlain
MR) Cody Epply
MR) Clay Rapada
MR) Boone Logan
SU) David Robertson
CL) Mariano Rivera
MR) Mark Mongomrey
Positional:
Catchers:
Russell Martin
Francisco Cervelli
1st Basemen:
Mark Teixeira
2nd Basemen:
Robinson Cano
Shortstop:
Derek Jeter
Eduardo Nuñez
3rd Basemen:
Chase Headley
Left Field:
Ichiro Suzuki
Raul Ibanez
Center Field:
Michael Bourn/BJ Upton
Brett Gardner
Right Field:
Justin Upton
Utility: Martin Prado
Lineup:
1) Michael Bourn
2) Derek Jeter
3) Chase Headley
4) Robinson Cano
5) Mark Teixeira
6) Justin Upton
7) Martin Prado
8) Russell Martin
9) Ichiro Suzuki
Bench:
OF/DH) Raul Ibanez
IF) Eduardo Nuñez
C) Fransico Cervelli
OF/PR) Brett Gardner
Plan-
In order to obtain enough prospects to get Chase Headley, Justin Upton, and Martin Prado the Yankees will need to trade several key players and run their farm dry for now. First they need to trade Curtis Granderson for a large return. Possibly to Miami for Christian Yeilich and Zach Cox. Also trade Phil Hughes to the Padres for prospects Jedd Gyoroko and Jace Peterson. Lastly trade Alex Rodriguez and lots of cash which doesn’t count toward the cap to the Dodgers for Angel Sanchez. To get Justin Upton the Yanks would need to trade something like this; Zach Cox, Jace Peterson, Dellin Bantances, Austin Aune, Zachary Nuding, Manny Banuelos, and Adam Warren. A trade for Chase Headley would need to include the following pieces; Christian Yeilich, Angel Sanchez, Angelo Gumbs and Slade Heathcott. Then to recive Martin Prado the Yankees would need to trade Ivan Nova, Austin Rommie, Jedd Gyoroko, Dante Bichette Jr, Ramon Flores, Jose Ramirez, Ramero Pena and Nix Turley. By doing trades like these the Yankees have cleared all minor league talet besides Mason Williams, Gary Sanchez, Tyler Austin, Ty Hensley but since the Yanks have departing free agents, if they tender Nick Swisher and Rafael Soriano, they will have three first found picks to build up more talent. If the Yankees follow this plan they will reduce their budget and have gotten much younger and balanced. This will set the Yanks up for current success and long term by having future stars in the making. By having younger stars the Yanks should also improve fan attendance and make more of a profit to keep Hal and Hank happy. While all the trades and first round picks will keep Cashman happy. Though speeking of coaches the Yanks should try to keep the same staff except for Kevin Long who seems to have no idea what he’s doing. As for free agents they should look into bringing in Michael Bourn in as a replacement for the traded Granderson. A four year 30 million dollar deal with incentives for stolen bases should get a deal done. Another starter could be in the mix as well depending on the health of Michael Pineda and the trust in David Phelps, Jake Peavy could be a very nice fit considering his groundball pitching methond. The only role needed from the market would be a long reliever which Paul Malhom and a 2 year 6 million dollar deal could fix. Our current free agents such as Nick Swisher, Rafael Soriano(who will likely opt out of his current deal), and Hiroki Kuroda, should all be given qualifying offer. Though Soriano and Swisher will recive one so the Yankees can get compensation, Hiroki Kuroda will likely accept the offer. Ichiro Suzuki and Andy Pettitte should both be resigned to one year 6 million dollar deals. Russell Martin had a terrible year in the batters box which should cause his price to go down and a 3 year 15 million dollar deal should bring him back. Lastly the postseason god Raul Ibanez should be brought back on a 1 year 2.5 million dollar deal as a bench player. The reason not as a DH is because he goes on massive cold streaks. While some might want David Ortiz as a DH, it would no work because the Yankees have traditionally used the DH spot for rest. All though with younger stars there could be a remote chance this happens. All in all if this was a plan used by Cashman it would mean for a stronger and more consistent offense, but it also means there is a lot of trust within David Phelps and Michael Pineda. But this could lead the Yankees to a true Dynasty of World Series such as the 1996-2001 teams. Real make or break offseason in the fold folks, lets just hope Brian Cashman can deliver on a plan like this. Go Yanks!
Where to start? Well, I guess I could start off by asking if you realize that in your listed 25 man roster, you have 26 players? (That’s counting listed Micheal Bourn/BJ Upton as one.)
“First they need to trade Curtis Granderson for a large return.”
A one year rental of Granderson, his $15M salary, his .232 BA, and his 195 K’s does not bring back “a large return”.
“Also trade Phil Hughes to the Padres for prospects Jedd Gyoroko and Jace Peterson.”
A one year rental of Phil Hughes (FA 2014) does not net you their #2 prospect (Gyoroko) let alone gets them to throw in another prospect just for good measure.
“Lastly trade Alex Rodriguez and lots of cash which doesn’t count toward the cap to the Dodgers for Angel Sanchez.”
Any money that the Yankees send along to pay A-Rod’s salary absolutely counts against the Yankees LT, not the Dodgers. Trading A-Rod + $80M likely only gets rid of A-Rod. You are not getting back one of the Dodgers best pitching prospects as well.
“To get Justin Upton the Yanks would need to trade something like this; Zach Cox, Jace Peterson, Dellin Bantances, Austin Aune, Zachary Nuding, Manny Banuelos, and Adam Warren.”
The D-backs would likely hang up then and there. Just because there are a lot of them doesn’t mean that they are going to give up their best player for a batch of mostly C prospects.
“A trade for Chase Headley would need to include the following pieces; Christian Yeilich, Angel Sanchez, Angelo Gumbs and Slade Heathcott.”
Ditto. See above.
“Then to recive Martin Prado the Yankees would need to trade Ivan Nova, Austin Rommie, Jedd Gyoroko, Dante Bichette Jr, Ramon Flores, Jose Ramirez, Ramero Pena and Nix Turley.”
Double ditto.
“if they tender Nick Swisher and Rafael Soriano, they will have three first found picks to build up more talent.”
Actually, the compensation picks for Swisher and Soriano are supplemental picks, between rounds one + two, essentially high second rounders.
“Real make or break offseason in the fold folks, lets just hope Brian Cashman can deliver on a plan like this.”
Not a chance, unless he passes out stupid pills to the other 29 GM’s at the winter meetings.
P.S: Remember, paragraphs are your friends.
Considering the teams offense over 162 games, I can’t call this a weak offensive team.
I do think they seriously lacked making adjustments with 2 strikes and RISP.
I do think the short porch is too seductive for anyone with decent power.
I don’t think the players are the issue.
It is more the style of play that was CHOSEN.
We did however badly miss Gritner, as he is one of our few contact hitters.
I don’t know if Ichiro is a Starter or 4th/platoon OFer, but his style and skills fit the Yankees well.
[…] completely on injuries like the one that has sidelined Rodriguez. Rather, the Yankees’ penny wise approach to building an off season roster has left them looking pound foolish during the pennant race, leaving Cashman to cast his net wide […]