(The following was originally published at SB*Nation’s Pinstripe Alley)
Is increased testosterone responsible for Melky’s pumped up numbers?
Melky Cabrera was one of baseball’s most interesting feel good stories, that is, until Wednesday, when the San Francisco Giants’ left fielder tested positive for increased levels of testosterone. Now, the once emerging cult hero has become a public enemy.
Not surprisingly, the response to Cabrera’s positive drug test has been very emotional. Some have suggested that his statistics should be labeled with an asterisk, while others have demanded that he be disqualified from the batting race. Not content to only punish Cabrera, at least one pundit has suggested that the Giants should be forced to forfeit games in the standings. Although the outcry is understandable, most of the reaction has bordered on irrational. However, the most disturbing argument doesn’t deal with an appropriate punishment. Since the revelation of Cabrera’s positive test, some have suggested that the outfielder’s improved performance was a smoking gun, which is particularly dangerous logic because it can be used to cast suspicion even in the absence of evidence.
Before the abrupt end to his season, Cabrera had boosted his OPS by 12% (OPS of .906; OPS+ of 157) compared to last year. Should that increase have set off alarm bells? There are 12,000 qualified seasons in fangraphs.com’s data base, but for the purpose of comparison, the first one of each player’s career can be eliminated (because there is no prior point for comparison). That whittles the population down to 9,464, and among that sample, just under 14% of the seasons involved a greater improvement than the one Cabrera experienced in 2012. Although impressive, that doesn’t exactly qualify as abnormal.
Top-20 OPS Rate Improvements in Qualified Seasons, Since 1901
Note: Non-qualified seasons omitted for comparison purposes (i.e., all comps made to the most recent qualified season, even if a non-qualified season occurred in between).
Source: fangraphs.com
At this point, someone is probably saying, “What about 2011? I’ll bet Cabrera was using testosterone that year too”. Presumably, if Cabrera was using PEDs last year, he would have been caught, but maybe his dumb luck just happened to run out this season? If so, that also calls his 2011 season into question. That year, Cabrera boosted his OPS by 21% to .809 (OPS+ increase from 83 to 121), which ranks within the top 4% of all performance spikes in qualified seasons since 1901. This same relative percentage holds true even when only comparing players in their fifth qualified season. Surely, such a significant increase now warrants a raised eyebrow?
Top-20 OPS Rate Improvements in Fifth Qualified Season, Since 1901
Note: Non-qualified seasons omitted for comparison purposes (i.e., all comps made to the most recent qualified season, even if a non-qualified season occurred in between).
Source: fangraphs.com
Although Cabrera’s younger age (just entering his prime in 2011) and depressed 2010 season (his 2011 OPS was only 7.5% higher than his 2009 rate with the Yankees) are mitigating factors, it’s not unfair to say Cabrera’s 2011 campaign with the Royals featured a historic unadjusted OPS increase. However, that doesn’t mean his performance increase resulted from his use of testosterone. If one insists on making that connection, then what about the 418 other players who had OPS spikes as high or better than Cabrera’s? Did the Philadelphia Athletic’s Joe Dugan use PEDs to increase his OPS by 63% in 1920? What about Lou Gehrig, whose third qualified season featured an OPS spike of 28%? And, for Yankee fans quick to jump to conclusions, what do they think about Robinson Cano’s 22% OPS spike in 2009, which also happened to be his fifth qualified season?
Thanks to baseball’s improved drug testing program, we know that Melky Cabrera used performance enhance drugs. However, that doesn’t mean we know the extent to which his performance was enhanced. Although Cabrera’s offensive rise fits nicely with the narrative of PEDs being baseball’s equivalent of a magic potion, there are too many counter examples to contradict and not enough scientific data to support the inferred correlation.
While its unfair to link all performance increase to peds it’s also unfair to dismiss Melkys as notlinked to them. There is a clear change in his output and a clearly unnatural advantage given to his body. We have a reason this Melky is physically different and must link the performance to it.
You should neither link nor dismiss the two events because there is no way basis for doing either.
Lots of players have had “clear changes in output” that were greater than Melky’s. Are they all assumed to be PED users? Also, what is the unnatural advantage given to his body? And, are we sure his physical growth, if there is any, is not attributable to a maturing man becoming more serious about his training?
Just because substances are labeled performance enhancing, doesn’t mean they actually enhance performance. Too many fans suspend critical thinking and simply accept that relationship at face value.
I would argue the statement that there is no basis for linking PED use to increased performance is a pretty flimsy one at best. How can you not link an increased ability of your body to produce muscle to increased performance in a physical competition?
With Melky here are the FACTS; he unnaturally increased his testosterone which aids in lean muscle mass and reduces body fat. Another fact his performance increased significantly. To not link the two is simply ignoring the facts.
While his output numbers went up a little this year, they went up a ton from 2010 to 2011. So if your looking for the PED difference I’d start there.
Under that argument, the Giants did not benefit from this – they have been hurt by it more then any other team.
Had the Giants known back in last off season, that Melky would be lost for the last third of the season, they surely would have signed someone else.
People who have suggested that the Giants have somehow benefited from this (Kirk Gibson) are totally off base. I could see the argument, if Melky had been with the team for years, but the Giants signed him based on his 2011 numbers, had he not had those numbers or had the Giants known how things would end up, they would have signed another slugger. The Giants are hurt by this more then anyone, other then Melky.
Using percentage increases is a foolish way to think. It is liek saying a guy who makes $10 and hour gets a 25% raise to $12.50, and the guy who makes $200 an hour gets a 10% raise. Who got the better raise? One guy is making $2.50 and hour more, the other raised his by $20 per hour. You can have the 25% raise, and I will take the 10%.
The facts are
1. He cheated
2. He got caught cheating
3. If this had been a college football recruiting scandal, the entire season would be forfeited for using an ineligible player.
If baseball wants to stop PED, they can make the rule, if a payer is caught using a PED all games that he has participated in will be forfeited and that players statistics are considered invalid.
The problem is, baseball does not really wan to clean it up too much, they just go after the obvious cheaters. Guys who went from a decent player, to a superstar
There’s only one reason someone would cling to the notion that PEDs do not add a benefit- despite the Bonds, McGwire, Sosa blatant evidence… And that is to irrationally try and save the integrity of ARod, Pettitte, Clemens, Giambi, Knoblauch, and the other yankees who will not only never come near the hall of fame, but who have also tainted a generation of Yankee fans’ memories forever. I wonder how long it took bonds, McGwire and Sosa fans to face the reality that their heros cheated- I’m sure many never will.