Even when the Yankees’ starters stumbled out of the gate, strong peripherals suggested the rotation would eventually become a strength. An abnormally high BABIP and home rate led many to believe the team’s pitching staff was in line for a correction, but the real bellwether was its high strikeout totals.
Yankees’ Peripheral Rates, Starters and Relievers, 2012
Source: fangraphs.com
Although a low walk rate and declining number of homeruns allowed have been important ingredients, the key to the Yankees’ pitching success this season has been strikeouts. In no game was that more on display than during Wednesday afternoon’s 4-3 victory over the Rays in which five Yankees’ pitchers combined to strikeout 16 batters. In addition to being the season’s highest single game total, the parade of strikeouts was also the 30th time that the Yankees’ staff fanned at least 10 batters, only one behind the Washington Nationals for the major league lead. Since 1918, that total already ranks sixth in franchise history, and if pro-rated over the second half, would obliterate the team record of 42 double-digit strike games set in 2001 and 2009 and join the Nationals in challenging the 2003 Cubs all-time record of 57 games. Although many people expected the Yankees’ pitching to be a relative strength, no one could have anticipated this level of dominance.
Yankees Historical K/9 Rates for Relievers and Starters, 1974-2012
Note: Reliever and Starter data goes back to only 1974 because that is the first year in which both sources are in agreement on the assignment of innings.
Source: fangraphs.com and baseball-reference.com
The Yankees’ ability to generate strikeouts has been more than anecdotal. With a staff rate of 8.45 strikeouts per nine innings, the Yankees rank second in the majors, only a small fraction behind the Brewers. As individual units, the rotation and bullpen also lead the American League with 8.17 and 9.08 strikeouts per nine innings, respectively. From a historical perspective, the 2012 Yankees’ pitching staff currently has the highest strikeout rate in American League history (although this year’s Tigers are on their tail) and ranks behind only the 2003 Cubs and present day Brewers for the top spot since 1901. At the very least, this year’s staff should break the franchise record for most strikeouts per nine innings, with the rotation and bullpen each in line to set team highs dating back to at least 1974.
Historical League K/9 Rates, 1901-2012
Source: fangraphs.com
The Yankees’ ability to generate strikeouts has certainly been impressive, but this season they haven’t been alone in that regard. Five other teams are also vying for the all-time strikeout record, while the current major league K/9 rate of 7.11 would easily rank as the highest ever. With strikeouts up across the board, the relative importance of the Yankees’ historic total is mitigated somewhat, but it remains a comparative advantage so far this season.
Yankee Pitchers’ K/9 Rates, 2012 vs. Career
*Career rate is cumulative minor league performance.
Source: fangraphs.com and baseball-reference.com
Can the Yankees’ pitchers sustain their strikeout tendencies in the second half? Considering just about every member of the staff has exceeded his career rate, and strikeouts are usually strongly correlated form year to year, the staff is likely due for at least a small regression, especially with Freddy Garcia replacing Andy Pettitte over the next six weeks. Ultimately, the pursuit of various strikeout records is a mostly trivial matter, but the underlying implications for overall performance make it a trend worth watching. Although the only record that really counts is the one that tallies wins and losses, the Yankees’ final strikeout totals could have a lot to say about where the team finishes in the standings.
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