Baseball fans and writers are an impatient lot. Instead of letting the 162-game schedule run its course, many can’t resist skipping ahead to the end by drawing conclusions based on “if the season ended today”.
The latest example of this rush to judgment comes from ESPN’s Wallace Matthews, who, based on the team’s first 50 games, has concluded that the Yankees are “better than average, and less than very good”. Anyone who has watched the Yankees play would probably agree with Matthews, but where he goes astray is by extrapolating the team’s record over 162 games. Taking a page from Bill Parcells, who famously stated “you are what your record says you are”, Matthews pegs the Yankees as an 88-win team, which, according to the writer, would likely not be good enough to win even the second wild card, even though they are currently tied for that position now. Matthews never explains why 50 games are a meaningful barometer for the Yankees, but not the rest of the league, so I figured I’d take a look at how the team’s historical record after that many games has held up over each season.
In 56 of their 111 completed seasons, or just over half, the Yankees have improved after 50 games. Even in seasons when they made the post season, the same trend pretty much holds true (27 gains and 23 declines), so, at this checkpoint at least, a coin flip would be as good as any other method for trying to predict how the Yankees will play going forward.
Yankees Winning Percentage At vs. After 50 Games, Since 1901
Note: Red markers indicate years in the post season. Positive readings are “improvements”.
Source: Baseball-reference.com
In terms of magnitude, the Yankees’ improvement or decline from their 50-game winning percentage has been evenly distributed. In roughly 30% of all seasons, the team either played much better or worse, while in another 30%, there was a more modest improvement or regression. Finally, in the remaining 40%, Bill Parcells was proven right as the Yankees were pretty much exactly what their 50-game record said they were.
Yankees’ Relative Winning Percentage Distribution (At and After 50 Games), Since 1901
Source: Baseball-reference.com
Among years the Yankees made the playoffs, the team’s winning percentage distribution was mostly similar, with the notable exception being more improvements of between 5% and 10% and fewer declines at the extreme end of the spectrum. So, even though Matthews’ conclusion about 50 games being an accurate barometer usually isn’t true, the historical record does support the notion that the Yankees will need to play better in order to make the playoffs. Whether or not they’ll be able to do that is another matter, but consideration of that question should be based on expectations for the future and not a pro-rated assessment of the past. Right now, the record says the Yankees are “an 88-win team”, but the only voice that counts wont be ready to speak until the beginning of October.
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