ESPN’s Dave Schoenfield, custodian of the SweetSpot blog, recently pointed out a remarkable statistic: in exactly one fewer plate appearance, David Ortiz struck out 62 fewer times in 2011 than 2010. Incredibly, there is very little precedent for such a decline.
Besides Ortiz, only one other player in baseball history struck out 62 fewer times in consecutive 500 PA seasons (within a band of +/- 10 PAs between the two years). In 1975, Jeff Burroughs led the American league with 155 strikeouts, but managed to trim that total to 93 in 1976, despite coming to the plate nine more times, which actually makes his accomplishment more impressive. Otherwise, only six other players experienced a decline of at least 40 strikeouts from one 500 PA season to the next.
Players With the Largest Strikeout Decline, 1901-2011
Note: Includes only a comparison of consecutive 500 PA seasons within a +/- 10 PA band.
Source: fangraphs.com and priority calculations
In terms of strikeout rate (K/PA), Ortiz’ 2011 decline of 10.2% ranks as the second most impressive improvement in consecutive 500 PA seasons. The only other drop off above 10% was turned in by Mark Belanger, who went from 114 strikeouts in 1968 to 54 in 1969. Because Belanger’s decline was accomplished in 63 more plate appearances, his 12.4% improvement easily outdistances even Ortiz’ steep drop-off.
Players With the Largest Strikeout Rate Decline, 1901-2011
Note: Includes only a comparison of consecutive 500 PA seasons.
Source: fangraphs.com and priority calculations
Now that we’ve established that Ortiz’ decline was historic, the next question is how did he do it? Considering the high year-to-year correlation of a player’s strike out rate (h/t fangraphs’ Bill Petti), the chances of such a large decline being random isn’t very likely. So, Big Papi’s improvement suggests he either benefited from a more favorable distribution of his at bats or made a significant adjustment to his approach at the plate.
My first guess was Ortiz may have either faced fewer lefties or simply had a much better season against them, but neither was the case. Not only did Ortiz have one fewer plate appearance against left handers in 2011, but the declines in his strikeouts were the same for both righties (43.1%) and lefties (42.1%). So, the Red Sox’ DH didn’t benefit from a more favorable platoon split.
David Ortiz’ PITCHf/x Data, 2010 vs. 2011
Source: fangraphs.com
The first hint about an explanation comes from an analysis of Ortiz’ PITCHf/x data. The one number that jumps out is the significant increase the rate of contact Ortiz made (Contact%), especially on pitches out of the zone (O-Contact %). As a result, Ortiz’ swing and miss rate (SwStr%) also declined to the lowest level since joining the Red Sox. Meanwhile, Ortiz saw 210 fewer pitches and faced 46 fewer two-strike counts, thanks in large part to 35 more at bats of two pitchers or less (including 26 more outcomes on the first pitch).
David Ortiz’ Batting Count Data, 2010 vs. 2011
Source: baseball-reference.com
Although the natural inference would be to assume Ortiz’ strikeout decline was due to a more aggressive approach, the percentage of balls he offered at was relatively unchanged. Rather, it seems as if pitchers were being more aggressive earlier in the count (perhaps because of the perception that Ortiz’ bat speed was slowing). In 2011, Ortiz saw a first strike in 56.9% of his at bats, an increase from 49.5% the year before. So, if aggression is a factor, the onus is at least as much on the opposition.
Having 46 fewer two-strike counts is a big reason why Ortiz’ K-rate declined so precipitously, but it isn’t the only factor. After all, with two strikes, Big Papi’s K-rate declined from 42.7% in 2010 to 28.2% in 2011. What’s more, he also hit much better with two strikes, increasing his OPS in the split from .686 to .804 (for an sOPS+ of 208). In other words, Ortiz was simply a much better hitter in 2011.
David Ortiz’ Strikeout Rates, 2000 to 2011
Source: fangraphs.com
Perhaps more important than how Ortiz was able to avoid striking out in 2011 is whether he will be able to repeat that performance in 2012. It might seem like a difficult task for a big slugger like Ortiz to maintain such a low strike rate, but a look at his career rates suggests 2010 may be the real outlier. Although Ortiz has had success while striking out at higher rates, the DH’s continued ability to avoiding going down on strikes could dictate the level of his performance in 2012, making his contact rates a bellwether Red Sox fans might want to monitor during the season.
There were reports last year that Adrian Gonzalez had actually influenced David Ortiz’ approach at the plate, and convinced the DH to start using more of the field.
Here’s a WEEI story about that:
http://m.weei.com/sports/boston/baseball/red-sox/rob-bradford/2011/05/23/how-adrian-gonzalez-has-helped-david-ortiz-re
Based on this remarkable Fangraphs interview with Gonzalez, it’s apparent the new Sox is able to talk hitting easily and clearly, and has a lot of interesting things to say…
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/qa-adrian-gonzalez/
Wonder if any other hitter had an actual impact on the quality of hitting of his other teammates. I naturally think of Williams and the Sox who played with him — Pesky, Doerr, Dom Damaggio — did they improve after playing with Williams?
Thanks for posting that link. It’s very interesting. However, the batted ball data says Ortiz pulled the ball 43% of the time in both 2010 and 2011, so he really didn’t use the whole field more (he did hit 5% points more to center/less to left).
As for hitters having an impact on teammates, it has been written that Boggs preached patience to Mattingly, and sure enough, his BB% did jump up when the two played together.
Very interesting stuff, William.
I wonder about one thing though. When going back to see if there are comparable players who have experienced similar drops in K rate, you kept the sample to a +/- 10. That would seem to leave out players who might have dropped their K rates in a second season but didn’t get quite the PAs. For example, a player who Ks 20% of the time in 500 PAs one year, then Ks 10% in 450 PAs the next. I don’t have any one in mind, but I’m just wondering if maybe you’ve inadvertently left some data out of your sample.
In any case, thanks for the thought-provoking work.
Hey there Matt,
I used 500 PAs as a baseline for two reasons. The first is that provides a good sample size (a qualified season is 502). Of course, there’s not much difference between 499 and 500, but once you start moving the bar lower, you introduce the the chance for more randomness.
The second reason I used 500 PAs as a cutoff is because I had to scrub the data manually (no database I know of allows for this kind of analysis, so I had to create my own). Unfortunately, the total number of seasons is more than Excel allows, so some cut off had to be used.
Considering the 62 K decline, I doubt there would be many total drops among hitters with fewer than 500 PAs, but there could be some more impressive rates (although again, maintaining the rate over a longer period accentuates the accomplishment).
I’ll run some more numbers to see if anyone pops up and then post a follow-up if warranted.
Quickly scanning that list there isnt an ortiz comp there.
79 is when dewey started goinb from good to great. Burroughs just had an all over the place career that was finished at 30
deshields obviously could very well be the exat polar opposite of ortiz. Like the anti ortiz if tbey shake hands they will produce an ecplosion of immense power.
Staub, again, was just getting eccellent at that point.
Gaetti was still early career.to do this at his age, 33 to 36 id assume is pretty amazing. Especially when he he had such a long period of sucktitude followed by what i thought was the dead cat bounce at the end.
Remarkable stuff man.
[…] 2011, David Ortiz enjoyed a historic drop in his strikeout rate, an accomplishment made even more extraordinary by the overall environment in which it was achieved […]
[…] hitters gain experience, nor make accommodation for the disproportionate impact of David Ortiz’ historic strikeout decline during the period in question. Also, the players considered faced approximately 2,500 shifts, […]