Yesterday, ESPN’s Keith Law released his annual list of the game’s top-100 prospects. Although the real value is in the individual player write-ups, there were also some interesting trends gleaned from breaking down the ranking by variables such as franchise, position, and age. So, today, we also take a closer look at Law’s organizational list.
Since 2009, Law has produced a ranking for both prospects and organizations as a whole. Although the possession of top-rated names generally coincides with the franchise’s overall rating, Law’s organizational analysis also takes into account depth that might not be readily apparent in a top-100 list. Following is a series of charts (broken down by division) that examines each franchise’s placement over the four years the ranking has been conducted.
Law’s AL East Ranking
Source: ESPN.com
Despite graduating several top prospects like Evan Longoria, David Price, Jeremy Hellickson, and Desmond Jennings, the Rays have maintained a consistently high ranking, never falling below third. Tampa has used this organizational strength to remain competitive in the AL East despite a significant financial disadvantage. Perhaps following their lead, the Blue Jays have also gradually built a strong farm system, thanks in large part to aggressive international scouting, something the Orioles have not done, which might explain their regression. Finally, the Yankees and Red Sox have moved up and down in the ranking. In addition to recently graduating several prospects, each team has also cashed in their blue chips to make various deals. Currently, however, the Yankees seem to be in a stronger position at the table.
Law’s AL Central Ranking
Source: ESPN.com
No AL team has been as consistent in Law’s survey as the White Sox, whose aversion to paying out large bonuses to amateur players has stunted its player development system. Over the four years, the White Sox have twice placed last and never peaked above 23. For the first half of rankings, the Indians boasted the most promising prospects in the division, but that mantle has been passed to the Royals. Unfortunately, the Indians never realized much of the potential that once existed in their system (to Law’s credit, he lauded the Cleveland system because of its depth, not because it had many impact prospects), but with promising players like Eric Hosmer, Salvador Perez and Mike Moustakas already in the majors, and others like Bubba Starling and Wil Myers on the way, Kansas City’s harvest seems more plentiful.
Law’s AL West Ranking
Source: ESPN.com
For two years, the Rangers topped Law’s ranking, and many of the players that contributed to the high assessment, like Neftali Feliz, Elvis Andrus, and Derek Holland, have played a role in the team’s recent success. Despite an abundance of promotions (and trades such as Justin Smoak for Cliff Lee), the Rangers’ current ranking suggests the team has done a good job replenishing the system. Another team that has been adept at replenishment is the Oakland Athletics. That’s small solace to fans in the Bay area, however, because the A’s seem to be stuck in a cycle of developing young players only to trade them for more prospects when they start to become expensive.
Law’s NL East Ranking
Source: ESPN.com
There are two way to utilize a deep farm system. The first method, best employed by the Rays, is to continually promote talented young players to the majors. The Phillies have mastered the second: using prospects in trades for established veterans. Over the last four years, Philadelphia has acquired the likes of Cliff Lee, Roy Halladay, Roy Oswalt, and Hunter Pence, which explains the drastic year-to-year changes in the team’s ranking. Meanwhile, the Braves have gone more the other way, relying on the likes of Jason Heyward, Tommy Hanson, Freddie Freeman, and Craig Kimbrel to help keep the team competitive. The rest of the teams in the division have mostly ranked near the bottom of the survey, which is particularly surprising for the Nationals, who have had the good fortune of being in position to select generational talents like Stephen Strasburg and Bryce Harper.
Law’s NL Central Ranking
Source: ESPN.com
Like the White Sox, the Houston Astros have consistently ranked at the bottom of Law’s analysis, which might explain why the team recently endured its first 100 loss season. Despite a recent regime change, and a pending move to the American League, it could be a while before the Astros restock their farm system, not to mention return to being a competitive team. The Cardinals, however, have maintained big league success without comprising the minor league system. With six players included among Law’s top-100, and a shiny World Series trophy on the mantle, the Cardinals could be set up for continued success in the division. Of course, new Cubs’ President Theo Epstein, who has made rebuilding the farm a priority, could have something to say about that.
Law’s NL West Ranking
Source: ESPN.com
Thanks in large part to recent trades (many with the Red Sox as a counterparty), the Padres have risen from the bottom half of the rankings in 2009 to first in 2012. According to Law, what the Padres lack in superstar potential is made up in depth, which, for a financially challenged team like the Padres, seems a better alternative. The Diamondbacks have also rebuilt their minor league system, which bodes well for its ability to remain a playoff contender going forward. Meanwhile, the Dodgers and Rockieshave also done a good job stockpiling depth, giving the NL West four of the top 13 teams in the survey. That’s bad news for the Giants, who rank 26 and recently sent top prospect Zack Wheeler to the Mets in an ill-fated deal for Carlos Beltran.
Organizational Rankings by Division, 2009 to 2012
Note Lower indicates better. Average is combined sum of rankings divided by teams in the division.
Source: ESPN.com
Fueled by the Rays, but also because of the relative strength of the other teams, the A.L. East has consistently rated as the deepest division, and it hasn’t been close. Only the A.L. West has come within arm’s length of the East’s organization depth, while the rest of the divisions haven’t been able to keep up. Before this year, the N.L. West was consistently the weakest division, but that distinction now belongs to both Central groupings. With the Royals and Cardinals each able to buck the prevailing trends within their respective divisions, perhaps another I-70 World Series will be in the offing?
[…] Keith Law released his annual organizational and top prospect rankings, which drew the typical chorus of cheers and dissents. Instead of critiquing his assessment, however, I broke down the composition of his selections and examined how the former Blue Jays executive and current ESPN analyst has ranked each organization in the past. […]