Patience at the plate is about more than just drawing walks. It also incorporates a hitter’s ability to work himself into a favorable count. When ahead, major league hitters batted .299 with a .494 slugging percentage in 2011, but when they fell into a hole, those rates plummeted to .206 and .304, respectively. That’s why the eventual result of an at bat is as much dependent upon the earlier pitches in a sequence as the one that directly leads to the final outcome.
MLB Aggregate OPS in Different Counts, 2011
Source: Baseball-reference.com
When it comes to falling behind in the count, two strikes is as far as a hitter can go. Once their backs are pushed to the proverbial wall, batters fall under the mercy of their mound opponent, and the statistics above clearly indicate who gets the better in those situations. No wonder being considered a “good two strike hitter” is such a high complement for a batter, and having several of them is often the hallmark of a productive offense. In fact, last season, the correlation coefficient between sOPS+ with two strikes and runs scored was nearly 0.90 (a correlation greater than 0.80 is considered strong; a correlation of 1.00 is considered perfect).
Comparison of Runs Scored to Two-Strike sOPS+, 2011
Note: sOPS+ is a metric that compares a player’s/teams’ performance in a particular split to the entire league.
Source: Baseball-reference.com
While hitting with two strikes is a definable skill, what seems doubtful is the common belief that it requires special intangibles. Rather, the main perquisite for being a good two strike hitter is being a good hitter in the first place. However, there is still value (or at least trivial interest) in examining how players perform in such situations. So, in the graphs that follow is a closer look at how each Yankee batter performed with two strikes in 2011.
2011 Yankees’ Two-Strike sOPS+
Note: Includes batters with at least 50 plate appearances.
Source: Baseball-reference.com
In terms of sOPS+, Curtis Granderson and Robinson Cano were stalwarts in a two-strike count as each batter posted a rate around 70% better than league average (100). In far fewer at bats, Jesus Montero also showed great poise under the pressure of a two-strike count, which perhaps is another indicator of his offensive potential. The other end of the scale was mostly occupied by bench players, although Derek Jeter and Russell Martin also performed below average in two-strike situations. For the most part, each player’s performance with two strikes mirrored their overall output, but there were notable discrepancies, including a positive bias for Jorge Posada and Brett Gardner and a negative one for the Yankees catching tandem.
Two-Strike vs. Non Two-Strike OPS, 2011
Note: Includes batters with at least 50 plate appearances.
Source: Baseball-reference.com
Not surprisingly, Cano displayed the most consistency when comparing two-strike performance to all other counts. His .295 OPS differential was the smallest, but just barely ahead of Posada’s. Of course, Posada’s less prolific performance when ahead in the count helped propel the comparison. In contrast, Granderson’s gap was a relatively wide .540, despite leading the team in 2-strike OPS, because his performance in non 2-strike counts was off the charts at 1.243. The same scenario also applied to Montero and Andruw Jones, who each thrived when ahead in the count, leading to an inflated gulf when compared to two-strike performance.
AB, Walk% and Strike Out% Rankings in Two Strike Counts
Note: Includes batters with at least 50 plate appearances.
Source: Baseball-reference.com
Not all two-strike production results from the ball being put into play. When the count is full, the adage about a walk being just as good as a hit often still applies, and no one more than Nick Swisher displayed a willingness to rest his fate in the hands of the umpire. In 305 plate appearances with two strikes, Swisher walked 44 times, or 14.4% of the time, the highest rate on the team. Meanwhile, Cano showed much less patience in two strike counts, drawing a walk in only 5% of his 258 two-strike plate appearances, the lowest percentage on the team.
Batting Average and Slugging Percentage on 2-Strike Balls Put in Play, 2011
Note: Includes batters with at least 50 plate appearances. BABIP = (H-HR)/(AB-HR-SO+SF); SLGBIP = TB/(AB-SO+SF)
Source: Baseball-reference.com
Finally, based on the chart above, it’s easy to see why Cano would be so eager to put the ball in play with two strikes. Among full timers, the second baseman’s average + slugging on batted balls was second to only Granderson, both of whom ranked well ahead of the team’s other everyday players. Once again, Jeter and Martin struggled to produce when making contact on a two-strike pitch, suggesting their relative deficiencies in these scenarios are not the result of striking out too much.
As was the case with the examination of locational splits, the sample size of one season is more a snapshot of what occurred than a roadmap to what will. In general, however, it seems safe to conclude that if the Yankees are to remain a top offensive team in 2012, a good two-strike approach will likely once again play a significant role.
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