Is Feliz being moved to the rotation because of his blown save in game 6? (Photo: Getty Images)
The Texas Rangers made a surprise move by agreeing to terms with Joe Nathan on a two-year deal worth $15 million in guaranteed money. After making the announcement, the team decided to kill two birds with one stone by also letting it be known that former closer Neftali Feliz will be joining the rotation in 2012.
The pair of moves seems to make sense, especially because free agent C.J. Wilson appears to be on his way out of town. Considering the lack of comparable starters available (and affordable), and the glut of relievers on the market, moving the 24-year old Feliz’ electric arm into the rotation should give the Rangers the best chance to remain competitive in the A.L. West.
But, is that the only reason the Rangers are moving Feliz to the rotation? According to Buster Olney, the lingering effects of Feliz’ blown save in the sixth game of the World Series might also be a factor. In a series of Tweets, Olney expressed sentiments that are probably widely believed throughout the game: young closers who blow big games become damaged goods. So, if the Rangers had any concerns about Feliz’ ability to stare down the barrel of the ninth inning going forward, it would make sense to usher him into the rotation.
History tells us that young closers who blow postseason leads in big moments rarely recover; it’s a good time for TEX to shift Neftali Feliz.” – Buster Olney on Twitter
For what’s worth, both Ron Washington and Jon Daniels have denied that the switch was made out of deference to Feliz’ World Series slip up (which, it should be noted, would have been a save if Nelson Cruz hadn’t misplay David Freese’s game-tying triple), but they’d probably say that regardless. Because it’s impossible to divine the Rangers’ motivation, there is no reason not to take the organization at its word. However, that doesn’t mean we can’t let history have its say. Maybe, as Olney writes, it is a good time for the Rangers to move Feliz?
In order to verify the claim, we first need to identify what constitutes a “young closer”. If experience is the main factor, then Feliz, who already notched a World Series save in 2010, might not qualify. So, it seems more logical to use age as the defining criterion.
Blown Saves by Young Closers in the Postseason
Note: Closers under the age of 26; saves blown after the eighth inning and involving games with at least one run surrendered.
Source: Baseball-reference.com
Since 1903, there have been 41 blown saves by relievers pitching in their age-25 season or younger. However, 12 of those occurred before the eighth inning and/or featured middle relievers with little closing experience, either before or after the blown save. In addition, nine of the blown saves resulted without the offending reliever surrendering a run (and in some cases a hit). Finally, another eight games involved middle relievers or starters, and, in three others, the reliever remained in the game and recorded a win, leaving a grand total of nine post season blown saves by young closers (click here for the entire list) that could be considered debilitating.
Before and After: Young Closers Who Have Blown Saves in the Post Season (click to enlarge)
Note: Closers under the age of 26; saves blown after the eighth inning and involving games with at least one run surrendered.
Source: Baseball-reference.com
The one reliever most people usually point to when discussing the crippling effects of postseason failure is Byung-Hyun Kim. However, despite authoring two of the most excruciating blown saves in post season history during the 2001 World Series, Kim bounced back to have his best season in 2002. So, unless the trauma of 2001 had a delayed affect, it doesn’t seem fair to suggest his career suffered an impact.
After two blown saves in the 2001 World Series, Byung-Hyun Kim rebounded with the best season of his career.
Calvin Schiraldi is another pitcher whom many people identify as being permanently damaged by his two blown saves during the 1986 post season. And, based on his performance drop off in 1987, there seems to be some credibility to that argument. However, it’s worth noting that Schiraldi’s ERA before and after October 1986 is an identical 4.28, so perhaps his regular season performance that year created an inflated expectation?
In game 6 of the 1975 World Series, Rawly Eastwick suffered an epic World Series disappointment when he allowed a game-tying three-run homer to Bernie Carbo with two outs in the eighth. Like Kim years later, Eastwick also responded with the best season of his career in the next campaign, so unless the impact was also delayed, the psyche of the 24-year old closer seems as if it remained intact.
Bobby Jenks and Armando Benitez both exhibited a decline in performance in the season following their key post season blown saves (2005 World Series and 1997 ALCS, respectively). However, both relievers subsequently turned in several seasons that rank among the best in their careers. Also, the before and after results for both pitchers do not exhibit a meaningful digression, so once again, it’s impossible to conclude that October failure had a lingering effect.
The one young closer who has “never been the same” since a high profile October blown save is Jonathan Broxton. Before giving up Jimmy Rollins’ walk-off double in game four of the 2009 NLCS, the Dodgers’ burly closer had a career ERA+ of147, but since then has seen it plummet all the way to 90. Obviously, several other factors could be in play, but at least on the surface, one could argue that Broxton never recovered from his failures in October.
No pitcher has been more successful in the post season than Rivera, but even he suffered an October blown save early in his career as a closer.
Because only six pitchers made it through the screen, it’s impossible to make any definitive conclusion about the impact of blown saves on young closers. Even if the age range was extended to 27, only 32 more games would be thrown into the mix (many of which wouldn’t make through the screen outlined above). Also, included among that group are prolific closers like Dan Quisenberry, Rob Nenn, Jonathan Papelbon, Billy Wagner, Brad Lidge, Rich Gossage, and the great Mariano Rivera. Even though Rivera is often the exception that overshadows any rule, it wouldn’t be much fun trying to make the case that those other relievers were mentally unable to rebound from post season disappointments early in their careers.
Instead of trying to manufacture a narrative, it seems more prudent to let history speak for itself. In this instance, however, we’ll have to settle for silence because the only thing history can tell us about young closers who blow post season leads is there isn’t much of a history at all.
Good stuff, but also note that Broxton was doing pretty great in 2010 before he had his horrible blowup against the Yankees, where he threw something like almost fifty pitches after pitching a lot in the previous games. Correlation isn’t causation but I think that had more to do with his sudden downfall than his blown saves in the postseason.