It's been "win day" when Verlander pitches for the Tigers (Photo: AP).
Justin Verlander continued his late season run of dominance by recording his 12th consecutive victory in Sunday’s 3-0 triumph over the Athletics. During that span, the Tigers’ right hander has compiled half of his league leading 24 victories, the highest total by an American League pitcher since Bob Welch won 27 games in 1990.
Even though more advanced metrics place Verlander in close proximity to other Cy Young contenders like CC Sabathia, Dan Haren and Jered Weaver, his inflated win total has all but assured he’ll go home with that award. What’s more, if the recent rumblings by voting members of the BBWAA are any indication, Verlander may need room on his mantle for more than just one piece of hardware.
Most Wins in a Single Season, Since 1990
| Player | Tm | Year | W | L | IP | SO | ERA | ERA+ |
| Bob Welch | OAK | 1990 | 27 | 6 | 238 | 127 | 2.95 | 126 |
| Justin Verlander | DET | 2011 | 24 | 5 | 244 | 244 | 2.29 | 176 |
| Randy Johnson | ARI | 2002 | 24 | 5 | 260 | 334 | 2.32 | 197 |
| John Smoltz | ATL | 1996 | 24 | 8 | 253.2 | 276 | 2.94 | 149 |
| Curt Schilling | ARI | 2002 | 23 | 7 | 259.1 | 316 | 3.23 | 142 |
| Barry Zito | OAK | 2002 | 23 | 5 | 229.1 | 182 | 2.75 | 158 |
| Pedro Martinez | BOS | 1999 | 23 | 4 | 213.1 | 313 | 2.07 | 243 |
Source: Baseball-reference.com
One often repeated fact used to advocate Verlander’s MVP candidacy is the Tigers’ 25-8 record in games that he pitches. According to the theory, the team’s comparative winning percentage (.758 with him versus .533 without) illustrates just how valuable Verlander has been to the Tigers’ division title, which makes him a leading choice for MVP. Of course, there are two obvious flaws in that logic. Obviously, without a contribution from the eight men behind him, Verlander would not have been able to compile such a high win total. Although Verlander has been the common denominator in the 33 games he has started, players like Miguel Cabrera, Victor Martinez, Alex Avila and Jose Valverde also deserve a share of the credit for those victories. Secondly, even with a .533 winning percentage, the Tigers would lead the Central Division by three or four games. If the end justifies the means, then it could be argued that the Tigers haven’t needed Verlander as much as some have suggested.
Best and Worst Team Records in a Pitcher’s Games Started
| Player | W | L | W% | Player | W | L | W% | |
| Vance Worley | 16 | 4 | 0.800 | Ubaldo Jimenez | 8 | 13 | 0.381 | |
| Roy Halladay | 23 | 7 | 0.767 | Mat Latos | 11 | 18 | 0.379 | |
| Justin Verlander | 25 | 8 | 0.758 | Tyler Chatwood | 9 | 15 | 0.375 | |
| Ian Kennedy | 23 | 8 | 0.742 | Brett Myers | 11 | 20 | 0.355 | |
| Zack Greinke | 19 | 7 | 0.731 | Livan Hernandez | 10 | 19 | 0.345 | |
| Ivan Nova | 18 | 7 | 0.720 | Jeff Francis | 10 | 21 | 0.323 | |
| Josh Beckett | 20 | 8 | 0.714 | Danny Duffy | 6 | 14 | 0.300 | |
| Cliff Lee | 21 | 9 | 0.700 | Paul Maholm | 7 | 19 | 0.269 | |
| Jair Jurrjens | 16 | 7 | 0.696 | Dustin Moseley | 5 | 15 | 0.250 | |
| Jered Weaver | 22 | 10 | 0.688 | J.A. Happ | 6 | 20 | 0.231 |
Note: Minimum 20 starts.
Source: Baseball-reference.com
The exaggerated claims about Verlander’s season do little to diminish the excellence he has exhibited. However, relying on purely team-based statistics can be awfully misleading. For example, some have suggested that having to use Andrew Miller as a starter has contributed to Boston’s September swoon, but that argument ignores the fact that the Red Sox are 9-3 in games he has started. Similarly, the Tigers enjoy winning percentages of .655 and .613 in games started by Rick Porcello and Max Scherzer despite their having an ERA+ of 84 and 92, respectively. Apparently, the Tigers have still been able to win ball games even when they don’t receive stellar starting pitching.
Justin Verlander has had an incredible season and, all things considered, is probably the most deserving candidate for the Cy Young award. Before anointing him an MVP, however, those with a vote would be wise to take a step back from his impressive win total and see what lies beneath it. Maybe Verlander is the Cy Young and MVP, but if so, a vote shouldn’t be based on how well the team has played when he has been on the mound. The 2011 Tigers are not the 1972 Phillies, so giving all the credit to Verlander seems as much a slap in the face to the rest of the team as a plaudit for the ace right hander.
I agree that a Team’s Record under a pitcher (Alone) should not merit that pitcher being an MVP candidate. That said, I do think you are overlooking some other factors that are not easily demonstrated statistically.
For instance, the Tigers manager has the ability to “use up” the bullpen the night before a Verlander start to try to win a game and typically has a somewhat more rested bullpen the night after a Verlander start since he has gone at least 7 innings in almost every start. That deeper bullpen translates to an arguably better chance to win games in the game before and after he pitches.
Verlander has also kept the Tigers from any extended losing streaks, as he has a tremendous record following a Tigers loss. How do you quantify the confidence this gives a team? The Red Sox are going through quite a slide of late, and it’s partly based on a starting pitching staff having problems. This seems to translate to the team losing confidence and “pressing” and trying to do to much at times. A bit oversimplified I realize, but the swagger, confidence and patience the Tigers play with is unmistakeable when Verlander pitches. This confidence/success cycle has seemed to carry through the rest of their games–and starting rotation.
Can anyone say this is strictly a “Verlander effect”? No, of course not. But I don’t think it’s a coincidence that Verlander’s worst month–his March/April start coincided with the Tigers poor start. And there certainly seems to be a strong correlation to his success and the Tigers rise to a top playoff contender this year.
Starters who give length absolutely impact how the bullpen is used, but that’s true of all aces. Because we can’t determine just how great that impact is for each specific Cy Young candidate, I think we have to assume it’s equal for all with a similar amount of innings (and Verlander’s IP lead over guys like CC and Weaver isn’t great on a per start basis).
The same argument about “confidence” can also be extended to other aces. I’ve heard some argue that without Sabathia’s dominant first 4 months, the Yankees rotation would have folded under the added scrutiny. Is that true? I don’t know, but it seems just as likely as the case you make for Verlander giving the Tigers’ some swagger.