(In addition to appearing at The Captain’s Blog, this post is also being syndicated at TheYankeeAnalysts.)
The longer the Yankees’ offensive malaise continues, the more it becomes confusing. Over a three-week period that has seen the team’s per game production plummet by almost two runs, no one explanation has been evident. Nonetheless, there must be something that stands out as a reasonable cause for the batting slump that most of the team is currently enduring.
After scanning the Yankees’ season splits in 2011, one number jumps out more than any other. In 30 plate appearances with a 3-0 count, the Yankees haven’t recorded a single hit. Of course, that statistics is misleading because the team has walked in 90% of those instances, or just a shade below the league average. So, when compared to the league’s performance on 3-0 (.366/.955/.761), it appears as if the Yankees have only missed out one or two hits. What’s more, the Yankees won all three games when those 3-0 outs occurred, so this split has played no role in the larger trend.
Yankees sOPS+ in Three-Ball Counts
| Split | PA | AB | HR | BA | OBP | SLG | sOPS+ |
| 3-0 Count | 30 | 3 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.900 | 0.000 | -6 |
| 3-1 Count | 87 | 44 | 3 | 0.386 | 0.686 | 0.682 | 99 |
| Full Count | 243 | 156 | 8 | 0.199 | 0.477 | 0.385 | 130 |
| After 3-0 | 79 | 31 | 4 | 0.258 | 0.709 | 0.710 | 142 |
| After 3-1 | 166 | 95 | 7 | 0.253 | 0.570 | 0.526 | 111 |
| Three Balls | 360 | 203 | 11 | 0.236 | 0.563 | 0.443 | 114 |
Note: sOPS+ is a measurement that compares the Yankees performance in a particular split to the league average.
Source: Baseball-reference.com
Even after an awful weekend in which the Yankees struggled mightily on three ball counts, the team’s related OPS splits are at least on par with the rest of the league. So, although the inability to do damage on 3-1 did hurt the Yankees over the past weekend, it has not been a systemic problem.
With yet another theory dismissed, one more observation bears closer examination. A lot has been made of the Yankees’ scoring too many runs via the long ball, which is an inherently silly argument. However, is it possible that the team is trying too hard to go deep? Although this tendency is difficult to identify in the numbers, one manifestation might be a decline in off-field production at the expense of pulling the ball. In other words, instead of letting the homeruns come naturally, the Yankees may be forcing the issue.
wOBA Relative to Hit Placement, 2002-2011
Source: fangraphs.com
The Bronx Bombers have been very successful at pulling the ball so far this season, but the team’s hitters have fallen behind the league when it comes to going up the middle and using the opposite field. Over the first 38 games, the Yankees rank near the bottom of the majors with a wOBA of .255 on balls hit the other way and in the middle of the pack with a wOBA of .336 on balls hit to center. In terms of sOPS+, the team ranks below average in both categories.
sOPS+ Splits Based on Hit Placement
| Split | PA | AB | HR | BA | OBP | SLG | sOPS+ |
| Pulled-RHB | 124 | 123 | 12 | 0.463 | 0.463 | 0.870 | 142 |
| Up Mdle-RHB | 248 | 244 | 7 | 0.250 | 0.246 | 0.365 | 76 |
| Opp Fld-RHB | 86 | 82 | 2 | 0.268 | 0.256 | 0.390 | 85 |
| Pulled-LHB | 181 | 176 | 29 | 0.409 | 0.407 | 0.972 | 153 |
| Up Mdle-LHB | 276 | 275 | 10 | 0.280 | 0.280 | 0.462 | 106 |
| Opp Fld-LHB | 100 | 97 | 0 | 0.247 | 0.240 | 0.351 | 62 |
Note: sOPS+ is a measurement that compares the Yankees performance in a particular split to the league average.
Source: Baseball-reference.com
So, if the Yankees have become too one dimension, who, in particular, is to blame. Unfortunately, the answer is the entire team. While ever regular but Derek Jeter is off the charts when it comes to pulling the ball, only Brett Gardner has a wOBA above .320 on balls to the opposite field. A handful of batters have also had success going up the middle, but for the most part, damage on offense has usually come from getting the bat head out early.
Yankees’ Offensive Breakdown, by Hit Location
| Pull | Center AB | Opposite | ||||
| Player | AB | wOBA | AB | wOBA | AB | wOBA |
| Alex Rodriguez | 43 | 0.452 | 29 | 0.335 | 26 | 0.32 |
| Andruw Jones | 12 | 0.608 | 9 | 0.298 | 5 | 0.179 |
| Brett Gardner | 27 | 0.394 | 30 | 0.348 | 29 | 0.353 |
| Curtis Granderson | 53 | 0.676 | 32 | 0.447 | 18 | 0.229 |
| Derek Jeter | 35 | 0.278 | 56 | 0.299 | 41 | 0.273 |
| Eduardo Nunez | 9 | 0.384 | 5 | 0.358 | 4 | 0.224 |
| Eric Chavez | 12 | 0.149 | 10 | 0.521 | 8 | 0.432 |
| Francisco Cervelli | 6 | 0.213 | 3 | 0.704 | 2 | 0.448 |
| Gustavo Molina | 2 | 0.640 | 4 | 0.000 | 0 | NA |
| Jorge Posada | 35 | 0.441 | 28 | 0.249 | 16 | 0.112 |
| Mark Teixeira | 58 | 0.527 | 27 | 0.329 | 21 | 0.265 |
| Nick Swisher | 40 | 0.349 | 23 | 0.289 | 35 | 0.242 |
| Robinson Cano | 50 | 0.573 | 36 | 0.401 | 32 | 0.198 |
| Russell Martin | 38 | 0.591 | 28 | 0.279 | 20 | 0.173 |
Source: fangraph.com
Is the root cause of the current struggles an inability to use all fields? It’s worth noting that over the last 10 years, wOBA on balls hit to the opposite field does have a meaningful positive correlation to runs scored, while the same metric for the other two splits does not. Of course, correlation doesn’t always imply causation, but if the Yankees are going to continue to perform so poorly on balls served the other way, they’ll have no choice but to either pull the ball even more or compensate by being even more productive when they do.
Pull the ball even more or be even more productive when they do? That’s crazy; that’s why they are where they are. This accounts for the terrible batting averages and the lack of any .300 hitters in their lineup. The biggest culprit is Teixeira. He has turned into a dead pull hitter and all smart teams now use the shift against him. He simply ignores the holes and hits into the teeth of the shift, which is a losing battle. The total inability to get a hit when it counts and the strikeouts with men in scoring position and on third base with less than two outs is what is bringing the Yankees down. I don’t need stats to tell me they’ve been pulling the ball. I’ve seen it in the games. This is a homer happy, pull happy team. The point that they score all their runs by homers is a valid argument. It means that when they run into good pitching, they cannot hit any home runs and, therefore, don’t score any runs.
[…] its decline, the bigger question of why remains. That’s something I’ve tried to answer before (here, here, and here), and although any combination of those theories could be a contributor, there are […]