The Captain's Blog

At first glance, Robinson Cano seems as if he has picked up exactly where he left off in 2010. His batting average, slugging percentage, wOBA, OPS+, and runs created per plate appearance are all in line with or even better than his near MVP season. However, there is one glaring indicator that has failed to keep pace: on base percentage.

When Cano first entered the league, he was a notorious free swinger, but the second baseman gradually increased his walk rate to a respectable 8.2% in 2010. In an admittedly small sample of only 18 games, however, Cano has only walked one time in 78 plate appearances this season. Is this the reversal of a trend, or a momentary set back?

Robinson Cano: 2010 vs. 2011

Source: fangraphs.com and baseball-reference.com

A look inside Cano’s plate discipline percentages doesn’t really reveal anything amiss. Although he has been swinging at more pitches, most of those cuts have come at balls thrown in the zone. There have been a few extra swings at pitches out of the zone, but for the most part, Cano has continued a trend that has seen him eschew taking strikes in favor of swinging at them. This finding contradicts the conventional wisdom that Cano has evolved from a free swinger into a more patient hitter. Instead, it seems as if he has just become better at picking out a good pitch to hit…and doing more damage when he does. In other words, Cano’s increasing walk rate is more about respect than discipline (in fact, 14 of his 57 walks in 2010 were intentional).

Cano’s Strike Breakdown

Source: Baseball-reference.com

The only apparent red flag in Cano’s early season approach has been his tendency to swing at the first pitch in at bat. Despite his deserved reputation as a free swinger, Cano has averaged a first pitch swing in only 35% of his plate appearances. This year, however, that rate has climbed all the way to 44%. As a result, the sweet swinging second baseman has failed to run the count deep. In fact, Cano has only seen six three-ball counts.

Robinson Cano’s Swing Profile, 2009-2011

O-Sw: percentage of swings at pitches out of the zone; Z-Sw: percentage of swings at pitches in the zone; SwStr: percentage of strikes on swings; 1stStr: percentage of first pitch strikes; 1stSw: percentage of swings at the first pitch; and Pit/PA: Pitches seen per plate appearance.

Source: fangraphs.com and baseball-reference.com

Obviously, you can’t walk if you don’t first work the count to three balls, but does that mean Cano’s swing-early approach is an ominous sign? Judging by the results when he puts the first pitch into play, it seems like Cano’s aggressive style is working. In 15 such attempts, he is batting .429/.400/.857, so until those rates, which collectively add up to a league-wide, split-based OPS+ of 192 (compared to a career rate of 127), decline, it makes sense for Cano to keep attacking that first pitch.

Instead of worrying about a re-emerging flaw in Cano’s approach, “blame” might actually belong on the doorstep of Alex Rodriguez and Mark Teixeira, who have compiled OBP’s of .492 and .402, respectively. With so many men on base in front of him, it seems as if pitchers have had no choice but to go right after Cano. And, based on the early results, the Yankees’ second baseman has been making them pay.

There is one area that might be cause for concern. Because he has been swinging and missing more, Cano’s strikeout rate has increased to 17.1%, a significant jump over his previous high of 13.8%. However, it’s worth noting that Cano’s OPS+ with two strikes is double the league average. In fact, the only time he seems to lag the league is when batting with three balls.

At some point, Cano may need to dial back his aggressive approach, but as long as he is swinging at strikes, there shouldn’t be cause for concern. Of course, the question remains, if Cano continues to punish those early pitches in the zone, will pitchers keep throwing them? If not,  the sixth batter in the Yankees’ lineup will be the one hitting cleanup.