(In addition to appearing at The Captain’s Blog, this post is also being syndicated at TheYankeeU.)
Over the last 24 hours, the Boston Red Sox and San Diego Padres have all but agreed to a deal that would send All Star 1B Adrian Gonzalez headed east for a package of prospects. Although no one can dispute Gonzalez’ talents as a player, does the move alone make the Red Sox better?
The Red Sox hope to add Gonzalez’ powerful opposite field swing to their lineup.
There are two small red flags with Gonzalez. The first is he has played most of his career in one of the weakest divisions in baseball: the National League West. Because performance is best measured relative to competition, the Padres’ 1B may not be as successful playing in the AL East. Again, that’s not really a major concern, but it could suggest a lower level to what should be high expectations. The second question mark deals with Gonzalez’ recent surgery to repair his injured right shoulder. Speaking on XX1090AM in San Diego, the Padres’ slugging 1B indicated the surgery would require a long rehab and that he might not be able to swing a bat for 4-5 months. That was on November 10. Doing the math, it’s possible that Gonzalez will not be ready to take his normal cuts until at least Spring Training, but perhaps as late as Opening Day. If the latter, it’s very possible that Gonzalez wouldn’t be in peak form until several weeks, or months, into the season.
Even with both of those concerns noted, acquiring Gonzalez is close to a no-brainer for the Red Sox, provided they are able to sign him to a long-term contract. Of course, picking up star players in the trade market also comes with another cost, which in this case could be Casey Kelly (ranked 18th overall by ESPN’s Keith Law), the team’s top prospect. If the combination of money expended (Gonzalez’ 2011 salary is a low $6.3 million, but a renegotiated deal could inflate that figure) and prospects traded prevent the team from making another acquisition (e.g., Jayson Werth, Carl Crawford, Justin Upton, etc.), the end result might not look so good.
Finally, if the deal for Gonzalez is consummated, that likely means the end of Adrian Beltre’s brief time in Boston. Going forward, it’s almost certain that Gonzalez will be a more productive hitter than Beltre. However, it isn’t for sure that he’ll perform much better than Beltre did in 2010. So, when you also consider Beltre’s top-shelf defense at a key position like third, the exchange becomes even less favorable. After all, Gonzalez’ gold glove at 1B will be replacing Kevin Youkilis’, who would be asked to move across the diamond to third, where he isn’t as sound defensively. Even if Youkilis is able to play third base at an acceptable level, he likely will not be in the class of Beltre. As a result, with all things considered, the Red Sox could be taking a step back in terms of infield defense.
With the departure of Beltre and Victor Martinez, the Red Sox have some ground to make up on offense. Without a doubt, Adrian Gonzalez goes along way toward doing just that. However, Boston will need its new acquisition to be healthy as well as able to make a quick adjustment to the AL East. What’s more, after wrapping up the deal, the Red Sox will need to have enough flexibility to make another addition. If everything falls into place, the deal should revive Boston’s standing in the division, but if the questions mentioned above are not answered in the affirmative, the benefit of adding Gonzalez might wind up being a more long-term proposition.
Nice try at throwing cold water on what is clearly a great deal for the Sox. The weak competition in the NL West is balanced by the fact that Gonzalez averages 35 home runs playing in one of the worst hitting parks in baseball — and he’s coming the AL east with Fenway and plenty of other hitter’s parks. Youklis’ ability to play very solid at 3rd isn’t a question. He’s played over 200 games there, with a UZR of 8.5. Compare that to A-Rod’s career 3b UZR of -17.6.
The deal won’t exhaust the Sox financially. Neither Beltre nor Martinez were cheap, and they have a lot of other payroll dropping off this year. Still enough to sign Crawford or Werth, and I would expect the Sox will get one or the other, probably Werth.
You are correct that even with Werth and Gonzalez, that isn’t a huge improvement over 2010 — although it is an improvement. But nothing wrong with that. In 2010, the Sox were a very solid second in runs scored — even though they lost four of their top five batters for big portions of the season. If they face just normal injuries in 2011 (and they add Werth or Crawford), they should match up very evenly with the Yankees in their ability to produce runs.
But more importantly, they will have under contract a much younger group who can continue to produce for years.
First off, the comparison to Beltre is based on park adjusted data, which takes into account Petco. Secondly, 200 games (almost half when he was 25-26) is not a basis for projecting how he will perform there in the future. Also, Arod’s UZR is irrelevant because the comparison is to Beltre.
I also don’t think it’s fair to say I am throwing cold water on the deal. In fact, I repeatedly called it a good deal. My only question is whether it will be have as big an impact in 2011. I think I raised some legitimate points in that regard.