The baseball hot stove was officially fired up on Sunday with the beginning of the free agent negotiating period.
According to numerous reports, the Yankees have already reached out to Cliff Lee’s agent to let him know an offer is forthcoming. Getting Lee’s signature on a contract has clearly been established as job one in the off season, so while Brian Cashman stays busy with that mission, we’ve decided to help him out with a blueprint for crafting the rest of the 2011 roster. Over the course of the next few days, we’ll present a series of trades, free agent acquisitions and roster adjustments that will position the Yankees for a successful run at number 28 in 2011.
Trade: AJ Burnett for Carlos Zambrano
AJ Burnett’s tenure in the Bronx has had its share of ups and downs, but mostly left everyone scratching their heads (Photo: AP).
The Yankees currently have a whole host of questions in their starting rotation. Signing Lee and having Andy Pettitte return would go along way toward answering many of them, but even if both occurred, that would still leave the enigmatic AJ Burnett in the fifth slot. Although he seems to be a pretty good teammate, the uncertainty surrounding his performance has become too great to tolerate. Even if they are able to build a strong quartet around him, the Yankees shouldn’t accept so much doubt every five days.
Wanting to trade Burnett and finding a willing partner, however, are two different things. In other words, the Yankees need to find another team with an equally high-priced enigma. The Cubs’ Carlos Zambrano seems to be exactly that man.
Since signing a five-year/$91.5 million extension in 2007, Big Z has been a major disappointment for the Cubs. Although his relative performance has remained above average, his behavior has been erratic and his commitment and conditioning frequently questioned. Those concerns culminated in a demotion to the bullpen and eventual suspension following a dugout tirade on June 25, 2010. Zambrano eventually returned to the team, and the rotation, after undergoing anger management, but you couldn’t blame the Cubs if they’ve had enough of Big Z.
AJ Burnett vs. Carlos Zambrano, Last Three-Year Comparison
| W | L | GS | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | |
| Burnett | 41 | 34 | 100 | 614 1/3 | 4.42 | 1.41 | 8.36 |
| Zambrano | 34 | 19 | 78 | 487 2/3 | 3.71 | 1.36 | 7.36 |
Source: Baseball-reference.com
Why the Trade Makes Sense for the Yankees
From the Yankees’ perspective, they’d not only rid themselves of having to constantly address Burnett’s bi-polar pitching personality, but they’d also eliminate the need to employ a personal catcher for the right hander. Although the Yankees have been successful despite Burnett’s reticence to throw to Posada, removing this potential rift from the clubhouse, especially during a time when Posada’s role will likely diminish, could be a plus.
In return, the Yankees would get a pitcher who is four years younger and marginally better, albeit in a much less competitive league and division. If the Yankees were able to keep Zambrano focused, he could have the potential to return to his All Star form. As an added bonus, Joe Girardi was a teammate of Big Z for two seasons, so he might be in a good position to get the most out of the volatile righty.
Why the Trade Makes Sense for the Cubs
Carlos Zambrano has given the Cubs more than few headaches over the years, including several confrontations with teammates, managers and umpires.
Although the Cubs would be acquiring an older pitcher coming off a very bad season, Burnett has actually been more durable, even taking into account Zambrano’s demotion and suspension. Also, from a scout’s perspective, Burnett would probably out-rate Zambrano, and that might make him an attractive project for Mike Quade. Although Burnett’s “dominant stuff” may have lost its effectiveness after five seasons in the AL East, it could translate very well to the weak NL Central.
The new Cubs’ skipper has said all the right things about Zambrano, but the opportunity to start fresh without a significant vestige of the team’s troubled past might ultimately be the most compelling part of the proposed deal. Do the Cubs really want to risk another midseason blowup from the cantankerous Zambrano? If not, they might be more than willing to swap headaches with the Yankees.
Money Matter$
Carlos Zambrano will make $17.9 million in 2011 and $18 million in 2012, while Burnett will earn $16.5 million each season. So, the Cubs would come out ahead by approximately $3 million over the next two years. In 2013, however, Zambrano’s contract contains a $19.3 million vesting option, while Burnett’s deal holds another guaranteed year at $16.5 million.
From the Cubs standpoint, they’d enjoy a short-term savings, but because Zambrano’s option isn’t likely to vest (top-2 in 2011 CY Young voting or top-4 in 2012 CY Young voting), they’d pay for that discount in the long-run. As a result, the Yankees would likely have to include a significant amount of cash in the deal contingent upon Zambrano’s option not being triggered. How much exactly would likely be determined by each team’s respective desire to make the deal, but the Yankees should not be averse to chipping in at least half of Burnett’s 2013 salary.
Contractual Obligations: Burnett vs. Zambrano
| Zambrano | Burnett | |
| 2011 | 17,875,000 | 16,500,000 |
| 2012 | 18,000,000 | 16,500,000 |
| 2013 | 19,250,000* | 16,500,000 |
| Total | 55,125,000 | 49,500,000 |
* Zambrano’s 2013 option vests if the he finishes in the top-2 in CY Young award voting in 2011 or the top-4 in CY Young award voting in 2012, and is healthy at the end of the 2012.
Source: Cot’s Baseball Contracts
Swapping Burnett for Zambrano is certainly appealing on the Yanks’ side of the ledger, but I can’t see the Cubs doing the deal, even if Zambrano is a bit of a headcase.
Interestingly, someone named Steve S. (not sure if it’s the same Steve S. from TYU) also posited this idea in the comments of a RAB post back at the end of September, and someone brought up the fact that both pitchers have no-trade clauses, which would likely further complicate this hypothetical transaction.
The reason the Cubs would do is: (1) Zambrano has completely worn out his welcome (he has been involved in several altercations, so he may have gone past headcase); (2) they think Burnett translates well to the NL Central; and (3) saving $1.5mn over the next two seasons is meaningful to them.
Burnett’s no trade clause is limited to 10 teams, which he may assign each season, so there’s a good chance the Cubs aren’t on the list. Zambrano does have a full trade clause, but I think it’s a good bet he’d be willing to accept a deal to the Yankees. Still, any deal would definitely be contingent on that decision.
[…] Captain’s Blog continues the exercise of crafting a blueprint for the 2011 roster. In part one, I advocated a deal of A.J. Burnett for Carlos Zambrano, so now it’s time to turn to the […]
i find it interesting that nyy fans want to run this guy out of town after he helped bring #27 to the city in his first season in ny in 09. yes he had an off year in 2010, however he is still young enough to help bring #28 to ny, he can still dominate on any given night and will be pitching againt inferior competition out of the four slot. i look foward to a bounce back year from A.J.
Running him out of town is kind of an exaggeration. Trading him for someone like Zambrano hardly qualifies as that.
Also, although Burnett did pitch well in 3 games during the 2009 post season, he was absolutely awful in two. That kind of inconsistency is exactly why I think it’s time to move on from Burnett.
Also, as he enters his age 34 season, Burnett really isn’t “young enough”. Finally, the fact that he is a #4 starter is kind of irrelevant for two reasons: (1) once the rotations turn over once or twice, the slotting gets jumbled; and (2) when Burnett is off his game, it usually doesn’t matter who the opposing pitcher is.
[…] What better time for the third installment of our blueprint series? The first two proposals (click here and here) dealt with bigger names like Carlos Zambrano, Colby Rasmus and Matt Kempt, but teams also […]
[…] on the same page, will Epstein be able to find someone to take his million salary? I’ve been advocating a Zambrano for A.J. Burnett swap for over a […]