The Captain's Blog

I am as superstitious a fan as they come. I also tend to be a lot more guarded in my expectations, at least in comparison to the unmitigated arrogance expressed by the more casual Yankee fan. However, no matter how hard I try to be more even handed in my assessment of tonight’s ALDS, I still can’t help coming to the same conclusion: the New York Yankees are a much better team than the Minnesota Twins. Whether its hitting, pitching or defense, the Yankees seem to have the edge.

At the plate, Yankee batters posted a major league leading wOBA of .347, a good pace ahead of the Twins at .334. In addition, the Yankees have a more diversified offense. Not only did the Bronx Bombers belt 60 more homers, but they also stole 35 more bases while only being caught two more times. What’s more, the Yankees even play small ball as much as the Twins: the two teams were only separated by five sacrifice bunts. About the only thing the Twins do appreciably better is put the ball in play (967 strikeouts to the Yankees’1,136), but, then again, that has led to a league leading 159 double plays, compared to the Yankees’ 124.

Offense Comparison, Season Totals

	BB%	K%	OBP	SLG	ISO	Spd	wRC	wRAA	wOBA
Yankees	10.4%	20.4%	0.350	0.436	0.169	5.3	865	132	0.347
Twins	8.9%	17.4%	0.341	0.422	0.148	5	785	66	0.334

Source: Fangraphs.com

Much has been made of the thin Yankees rotation, but what about the Twins’? Even including the disastrous seasons of AJ Burnett and Javier Vazquez, the Yankees’ pitching staff still recorded a better ERA+ than the Twins, albeit by a slight margin. However, if you break the comparison down to only include the individual stats of each prospective starter, the edge once again seems to swing more in the Yankees’ favor, especially when you consider the park factors for each team’s home stadium.

Pitching Comparison, Prospective Starters in 2010

	W	L	ERA	IP	WHIP	H/9	HR/9	BB/9	SO/9	SO/BB
Yankees	82	28	3.41	908.5	1.25	8.18	0.90	2.85	7.35	2.58
Twins	65	46	3.83	894.6	1.28	9.16	0.78	2.29	6.69	2.92

Note: The statistics for pitchers scheduled to throw a second time have been counted twice.
Source: Fangraphs.com

On an even more granular level, the Yankees have a decided advantage when comparing the relative performance of each team’s current roster against the scheduled starters in the series. Based on the charts below, perhaps the Twins would have been wise to go with Carl Pavano in the series opener? In any event, C.C. Sabathia gives the Yankees a considerable edge.

Yankees Starters vs. Current Twins Batters

	PA	HR	RBI	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
Sabathia	214	5	18	9	54	0.229	0.272	0.353	0.626
Pettitte	184	4	17	8	29	0.277	0.313	0.416	0.729
Hughes	40	0	3	5	6	0.333	0.400	0.394	0.794
Total	438	9	38	22	89	0.258	0.290	0.383	0.673

Source: Baseball-reference.com

Twins Starters vs. Current Yankees Batters

	PA	HR	RBI	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
Liriano	156	6	17	13	46	0.266	0.338	0.475	0.812
Pavano	120	4	12	6	26	0.245	0.288	0.409	0.697
Duensing	58	2	9	9	5	0.292	0.397	0.479	0.876
Blackburn	156	4	19	14	19	0.305	0.368	0.447	0.815
Total	490	16	57	42	96	0.276	0.333	0.450	0.782

Source: Baseball-reference.com

In the bullpen, the two teams are relatively comparable from a statistical perspective. However, with all due respect to Jon Rauch, the Yankees have a monumental advantage in the ninth inning. Mariano Rivera’s post season performance has been historic to say the least, and until he proves otherwise, there is no reason to suggest that he won’t continue his dominance this October.

Bullpen Comparison, 2010 Totals

	ERA	K/9	BB/9	K/BB	HR/9	AVG	WHIP	LOB%
Yankees	3.47	7.69	3.61	2.13	0.92	0.232	1.25	77.0%
Twins	3.49	6.74	2.95	2.28	0.87	0.254	1.29	75.9%

Source: Fangraphs.com

Probably to the surprise of many, the Yankees are also a better defensive team than the Twins, according to defensive efficiency (.707 to .688). Although UZR/150 favors the Twins as a team, it is worth noting that the Yankees have a decided edge in the outfield (8.6 to -3.7). Considering the spacious outfield in Target Field, the Yankees ability to run down balls could prove to be a deciding factor.

Yankees, Twins Outfield Defense

Yankees	Innings	UZR/150
Brett Gardner	1211	28.7
Curtis Granderson	1120	10.3
Nick Swisher	1103	-0.9
Austin Kearns	236	5.7
Greg Golson	75	29.2
Twins	Innings	UZR/150
Denard Span	1349	5.9
Delmon Young	1277	-10.8
Jason Kubel	801	-19
Michael Cuddyer	550	-18.6
Jason Repko	306	51.5

Source: Fangraphs.com

Prediction: Yankees in three games

It would be easy to hedge my bet and give Minnesota Twins a game or two, but all of the data and every instinct suggest that the Yankees could be poised for another sweep of the Twins. Of course, being baseball, anything can happen. The Twins are, in fact, a very good team…just not as good as the Yankees. If they were to win the series, it certainly wouldn’t send shockwaves, but make no mistake, it would absolutely be an upset.