The Captain's Blog

After staring the season like a Cy Young candidate, Phil Hughes’ performance has fallen off considerably of late. In his first six starts, Hughes posted a sterling ERA of 1.38 and OPS against of .446, but in his outings since then, those rates have risen to 5.51 and .828, respectively.

Phil Hughes’ First Six Starts Versus His Last Eleven

Date	GS	W	L	IP	H	BB	SO	HR	ERA	OBP	SLG	OPS	BAbip
Apr 15 to May 12	6	5	0	39	22	14	39	1	1.38	0.243	0.203	0.446	0.223
Date	GS	W	L	IP	H	BB	SO	HR	ERA	OBP	SLG	OPS	BAbip
May 17 to July 20	11	6	3	67	77	18	54	12	5.51	0.333	0.494	0.828	0.323

Source: Baseball-reference.com

No one expected Hughes to pitch to an ERA under two for the entire year, but giving up five and half runs per game over one-third of the season is somewhat alarming. So, what is the reason for Hughes’ recent struggles? Below, we take a look at a few possible explanations.

The Hughes Rules

Two of Hughes’ three losses, and his two poorest outings in terms of game score, have come after layoffs of 10 or more days. Coincidence? Perhaps, but then again maybe the time off has had an impact on the young right hander. More than the typical alibis of “being too strong” and “not being able to “locate” because of the extra rest, the bigger concern could be how the disruptions are impacting Hughes’ preparation. Roger Clemens always said that the most difficult part of pitching was the preparation between starts, so maybe the extended periods of rest have knocked Hughes off of his routine?

It should be noted that Hughes did have consecutive shaky outings against the Red Sox and Mets before taking his first hiatus, but those outings were not as poor as the two the came immediately after his 10-day breaks. If things hold true to form, we could see Hughes struggle once or twice more before regaining his rhythm and routine, just as it seems he did against the Mariners on July 9. If so, then Hughes’ struggles are only a minor concern born of the need to protect his valuable arm by limiting his innings. If the Yankees are prudent, they can avoid having Hughes’ face similar periods of inactivity by carefully planning the rotation down the stretch. With approximately 11 turns through the rotation, Hughes could still come in right at his rumored regular season limit of 170 innings, even while pitching six innings per game (he currently has 106 innings). If the Yankees do need to skip him again, they should at least explore better ways for him to use his “free time”.

Phil Hughes’ 2010 Game Log

Date	Opp	IP	H	ER	BB	SO	HR	ERA	GSc
Apr 15	LAA	5	3	2	5	6	1	3.6	54
Apr 21	OAK	7.1	1	1	2	10	0	2.19	80
Apr 27	BAL	5.2	2	1	4	2	0	2	59
May 2	CHW	7	4	0	1	6	0	1.44	74
May 7	BOS	7	7	2	1	7	0	1.69	61
May 12(2)	DET	7	5	0	1	8	0	1.38	74
May 17	BOS	5	6	5	1	3	2	2.25	37
May 22	NYM	5.2	8	4	3	7	0	2.72	41
May 28	CLE	7	5	2	1	8	1	2.7	66
Jun 2	BAL	7	6	1	1	7	0	2.54	67
Jun 8	BAL	6	9	3	0	4	0	2.71	46
Jun 13	HOU	5.2	7	5	2	6	1	3.11	39
Jun 19	NYM	7	5	3	3	4	2	3.17	56
Jun 29	SEA	5.2	10	6	2	3	1	3.58	24
Jul 4	TOR	6	6	5	2	5	3	3.83	43
Jul 9	SEA	7	6	1	0	5	0	3.65	66
Jul 20	LAA	5	9	6	3	2	2	3.99	24

Source: Baseball-reference.com

No Place Like the Road

Phil Hughes has not exactly enjoyed home cooking in 2010. Across the board, Hughes has performed better on the road than in the Bronx, where he has walked more, struck out less and surrendered twice as many runs per game. The most startling difference between his home and road performance, however, is the number of home runs allowed (or not allowed). When pitching in the road grays, Hughes has yet to surrender a long ball, but when clad in pinstripes, he has served up 13.

Phil Hughes’ Home/Road Splits

Split	W	L	ERA	GS	IP	H	ER	HR	BB	SO
Home	6	2	5.22	10	60.1	61	35	13	21	50
Away	5	1	2.36	7	45.2	38	12	0	11	43

Split	WHIP	SO/9	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	BAbip
Home	1.359	7.5	0.266	0.325	0.489	0.814	0.286
Away	1.073	8.5	0.225	0.271	0.272	0.543	0.299

Source: Baseball-reference.com

Even though the Stadium has been less of a homerun haven this season, it has still surrendered 2.6 per game. That’s bad news for a pitcher like Hughes, who ranks sixth in the American League with a fly ball rate of 44.9%.  Because only 9.2% of Hughes’ fly balls have left the yard, best among all Yankees starters, the sheer number of balls in the air allowed by Hughes may be working against him when pitching at Yankee Stadium. According to hittrackeronline.com, four of the homeruns surrendered by Hughes at Yankee Stadium would have gone out of fewer than two-thirds of all major league stadiums (out of the 10 recorded). Is that a startling revelation? Perhaps not, but if Hughes is even just a little bit more prone to the HR ball at home, it could help explain why he has not only surrendered more long balls, but seemingly been more tentative about throwing strikes.

Top-10 “Fly Ball” Pitchers, American League

Pitcher	Team	LD%	GB%	FB%	HR/FB
Kevin Slowey	Twins	0.22	0.27	0.51	0.09
Jason Vargas	Mariners	0.16	0.35	0.50	0.05
Jered Weaver	Angels	0.17	0.35	0.48	0.09
Tim Wakefield	Red Sox	0.17	0.36	0.47	0.09
Javier Vazquez	Yankees	0.19	0.35	0.47	0.12
Phil Hughes	Yankees	0.20	0.35	0.46	0.09
Ervin Santana	Angels	0.23	0.32	0.45	0.09
Brian Matusz	Orioles	0.20	0.36	0.45	0.09
Colby Lewis	Rangers	0.17	0.39	0.44	0.09
Matt Garza	Rays	0.22	0.34	0.43	0.12

Source: fangraphs.com

Change of Pace

During Spring Training, there was much talk about how Hughes was refining his change-up, which would serve as an all-important extra pitch in the right hander’s arsenal. Well, through his first 17 starts, Hughes has thrown approximately 35 change-ups, or less than 2% of all pitches thrown this season.

One trademark of Hughes fast start was his ability to not only locate his fastball, but also generate swings and misses with it. He also relied a lot more on his cutter for a change of pace. More recently, however, he has begun to re-introduce the curve. Whereas Hughes had been throwing twice as many cutters as curves earlier in the season, that ratio has leveled off. Perhaps this change in pitch selection has resulted in the Hughes’ inconsistent performance? In starts with a game score above 50, Hughes cutter/curve ration has been 1.63, but in starts with a game score below 50, the ratio has been 1.38. It’s hard to say whether this difference in pitch selection is meaningful, but it is worth noting. According to fangraphs, at 2.6 runs below average, Hughes’ curve has been his weakest pitch (fastball is 14.2 above, while cutter is 4.3 above), so his struggles could be attributed to trying to get a better feel for that pitch.

Phil Hughes’ Pitch Breakdown

	Average Speed	Times Thrown	Runs Above Average
Fastball	92.7	62%	14.2
Curve	76.7	14%	-2.6
Cutter	88.6	22%	4.3
Change	85	2%	-0.3

Source: fangraphs.com